As mentioned in previous analysis all the 3 banks are in Primary degree Wave 4 of Cycle degree Wave 3 correction. The question now is has the correction over for the 3 banks ?
The above are the charts for the 3 banks. As clearly seen, OCBC is the only bank that has broken out of the downtrend channel. DBS and UOB still have like 6.58% and 8.94% respectively away from breaking out of the downtrend channel. The downtrend channel is very consistent for the 3 banks to provide a fair analysis and comparison. Point A and B of the channel occurred at 30 Apr 2018 and 26 Sep 2018 respectively. From Elliott Wave perspective, OCBC and UOB have done a Fibonacci retracement between 38.2% - 50% while DBS just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Looking at the price being corrected, UOB only corrected 20.05% from its peak in Apr 2018 to its recent low. DBS did a 22.80% correction for the same duration and OCBC corrected 23.82%.
According to definition of bear market, all 3 banks fell into bear market with their recent low (more than 20% correction). However. till now, only DBS still yet to get out of the bear market as of closing price on 16th Nov 2018. DBS, OCBC and UOB bear market price level are at $23.584, $10.88 and $23.856 respectively. Remembered in previous analysis that DBS was the only bank among the 3 to be still in SuperCycle Wave 2 correction from 2000 to 2009. So it is not surprisingly DBS still among the 3 banks to be still in bear market.
That brings an interesting fact that some claimed DBS is the strongest bank in Singapore. Well from the data back in the 2000s to the present, no matter how one look at it, is unconvincingly to be true.
1. Should it be the strongest bank in Singapore, it will not be the only one fell into an extended SuperCycle Wave 2 correction back in 2000 - 2009.
2. Should it be the strongest bank in Singapore, it will be the first to breakout from the downtrend channel and not OCBC for this correction.
3. Should it be the strongest bank in Singapore, it will not be the only one still in bear market as of now.
So better not build a mountain out of a mold to make such a strong statement !
Another point to raise based on the performance of the 3 banks, the linkage to STI performance. The 3 banks pose a lot of weightage in STI despite other component stocks like SingTel, the Jardine group of stocks could move STI significantly. Till now, STI still in the downtrend channel from STI -- the next peak and trough ? (33) analysis. However, STI performance is not as bad as the 3 banks. From the peak of 3641.65 to its recent low of 2955.68, STI only corrected 18.84%, not even enter the bear market by definition. The recent rebound from STI could be said in a way helped by OCBC, the only bank stock to get out of the downtrend channel. While STI might have other index component stocks to help it move out of the downtrend channel, one thing for sure is when the 3 banks all out of the downtrend channel, there is no reason for STI still stay inside.
Factually Incorrect
For the past days or weeks encountered 2 factually incorrect statements.
Political Party To Unite the People, the Nation
Factually, looking around the world from US, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea to Australia, etc politics (political parties) always divide the people, the nation. There should not be any different in Singapore too. In the first place if the people, the nation is not divided then there will not be politics (political parties). Hence, do take a pinch of salt on this type of statement to prevent one being used as a prawn or tool for the propaganda of the political party.
Non-existence of Deep Root Culture
Factually, from a basic family unit to a company, an organization and government, there always exist a culture (norm) in doing things. This is because of the act of the decision makers of all these entities. Human Beings are not saint and are imperfect. Whatever decisions they make will always have negative effects being tagged along. It is these negative effects that after prolong periods (generations) of neglecting that it finally sinks to form deep root in the culture. It is just a matter of times problems or issues associated with it surface and it is unavoidable. Denying a deep root culture itself is a deep root culture already. It is only bold to acknowledge this deep root culture that said entity could change or improve to become better.
Now what do the above 2 statement got to do with stocks or stock market ? The first statement regarding politics has no direct relationship for sure. The second statement on deep root culture in a certain perspective has impact. Should the management of a company fail or choose to ignore the deep root culture, the management definitely is steering the company into the wrong direction and as an investor this is the type of company that one should avoid.
From an indirectly perspective, the ability to tell whether something is factually correct or incorrect will help one in making critical decision in investing in stocks (stock market).
