There isn't any convincing confirmation that STI has ended the correction at 2955.68 or still have a final downside. With that, STI now still taking both possibilities -- correction ended or still in correction.
A very messy chart as trying to squeeze all views in it but will go through in detail.
1. STI still trap within the downtrend channel (light blue colored). It is only a breakout from it will give strong confirmation of correction is over (probably not in the sense of Elliott Wave analysis). The downside is STI could be go down to touch the lower boundary of the channel for the last time. That is why STI still having both possibilities.
2. The Red label is for the case of Elliott Wave count STI still have 1 more downside as it is being patterned as a zigzag (5-3-5 structure) correction. The 2nd part of the zigzag should be a 5-wave impulse/diagonal only completed wave 4 (M4) and need the final drop to form the wave 5 (M5) to eventually complete the correction pattern. The statistic for this scenario is noted in the chart above with a potential target of 2882.59 to complete the correction. That is to say, 2955.68 was not the bottom. The only way to invalidate this wave count is the breaking out of the downtrend channel as noted in #1. In doing so, the wave count will be a different scenario.
3. The Magenta label is for the case of Elliott Wave count that STI has ended the correction at 2955.68. What STI is of now is the post-correction uptrend wave having just completed Minor degree Wave 1 (M1 labeled in blue) at 3121.27. The pull back was the wave 2 (M2). Question is whether that has ended at 3026.08, a 57.49% Fibonacci Retracement, falling into the typical range of between 50% - 61.8%. Should that is the end of M2, the moving up in the past few days should be the impulsive wave 3, M3. A statistic of this post-correction uptrend is noted in the chart above. By following the basic model of Elliott Wave (w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 1.618 : 1), M3 is expected to end at 3294.01 (or higher if it decides to go on an extended wave ie 2.618x of w1). M4 is expected to pull back to 3191.66 and finally M5 hitting 3357.25. M5 is also the peak of Intermediate degree Wave 1 (I1). This is a very importance level (for Elliott Wave). Previously was mentioned 3340 is a key level for STI as breakout from that is 100% assure of correction ended and wave count so far is valid. Ideally, since this correction is Primary degree Wave 2 (P2), the post-correction will be P3 which consists of a 5-wave structure in the lower Intermediate degree. I1 should hit near the key level at 3340 and pull back to form I2 before I3 breaks free at that level. The calculated I1 as shown above is very close to 3340 hence raising the possibility that the correction has indeed ended at 2955.68. This scenario of course can be invalidated if STI drop beyond 2955.68 or failed to hold above 2990 (an early signal from Elliott Wave perspective that correction has not ended)
While the analysis still point to both possibilities, the bias is more toward STI correction has ended at 2955.68 from the way the structure has developed for the past few days. Elliott Wave is defined by its pattern or structure and if any movement trying to void the existing structure, this implies a possible invalidation of the present wave count.
Added 20th Nov 2018
STI hit an intra-day low of 3023.68, lower than the previous intra-day low of 3026.08, signaling for the case of the post-correction uptrend Minor Wave 2 correction still ongoing and might even have further weakness.
1. A break below 2990 indicates still in correction and it will be the final drop with target hitting below 2900.
2. A rebound from 2990 indicates the post-correction uptrend still intact. The drop from 3121.27 to 2990 is actually the M2 corrective wave in which 2990 is the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Alternatively, it might not fall to 2990 as it could either rebound from the 61.8% at 3019, somewhere between 3019 - 2990 (61.8% to 78.6%) or rebound from today. Rebound from today is possible from statistical perspective.
M0 = 3121.27
MA = 3056.28
MB = 3087.90 (48.65% MA)
MC = 100% MA => 3022.91 (today intra-day low is 3023.68)
Added 21st Nov 2018
STI hits an intra-day low of 3007.31, falling into the 61.8% - 78.6% region for the uptrend M2 correction most common zone and rebound off to close above the 50% Fibonacci level. Technically, it is a good sign for the uptrend.
Despite that it still fail to change the picture that it is still possible to be in the correction meaning another big drop. However, the possibility of that could be lessen if STI within the next 3 sessions is able to breakout from 3088 as shown in the above chart. This will indicate it is in M3 wave, the impulsive Wave 3. Thereby provides an early Elliott Wave indication that STI is indeed in the post-correction uptrend. Time and level is the key for STI now.
This is a good sign as it raises the possibility of the validity of M3 wave. If that turns out to be the case, within the next 3 days STI should break 3121.27 and heading toward the M3 target of at least 3275.
The move above 3088 is also an early sign that the case of STI still in Primary Wave 2 correction is going to be invalid as the correction pattern is no longer valid going forward despite STI yet to move out of the downtrend channel.
Added 26th Nov 2018
On 21st Nov 2018 was mentioned STI if able to breakout from 3088 within the next 3 days would indicate it is in M3 wave. Today is the 3rd day and STI closed on the day high at 3093.38, above the 3088 level.
The move above 3088 is also an early sign that the case of STI still in Primary Wave 2 correction is going to be invalid as the correction pattern is no longer valid going forward despite STI yet to move out of the downtrend channel.
Added 29th Nov 2018
As mentioned on 26th Nov 2018 within next 3 days STI should break 3121.27. STI opened above it and hit and intra-day high of 3132.80 before closing at 3109.44. Should it able to close above 3121.27, this is the early positive sign that STI is in post-correction M3 wave. However, closing below that might bring out different scenarios.
Though STI did not close above 3121.27, it is still possible to do that within the next 3 days and still on track of being post-correction M3 wave. Should STI pull back from today, it will be a different story, an alternate scenario for the M3 wave. As shown from the chart above, a pull back to the region between 3055 - 3070 (61.8% - 50% Fibonacci retracement level) could mean STI is developing into a Minute degree Wave 2, m2, thereby forming a 3rd wave extension of 3rd wave for M3. In fact, this is the most powerful thrust for an Elliott Wave impulse wave. This mean the target for M3 will be higher than 3275, a projected of at least 3305 using the basic Elliott Wave model. If noticed from the above chart, today STI touched the upper boundary of the downtrend channel and pull back from there. Should STI developing into 3rd wave extension of 3rd wave, this is the early sign -- hit the resistance for the 1st time, pull back and breakout from that resistance the 2nd time.
