The picture for S&P 500 looks clearer now with the ongoing hammering down.
S&P 500 looks on course of doing a Expanded Flat correction for wave ((4)) as shown in the chart above. Wave ((3)) has completed in January 2018 since the start in 2016. For rest of the year and still ongoing, it is doing a wave ((4)) correction, a Cycle degree. This is not surprising as time frame for Cycle degree ranges from 1 to several years.
Expanded Flat pattern is a 3-3-5 structure. Wave (A) unfolded in a 3-wave down A-B-C ended in April 2018. Wave (B) which according to Expanded Flat guideline is 123.6% of Wave (A). Hence, S&P 500 exceeded the peak of wave ((3)) in October 2018. Wave (B) also unfolded in a 3-wave A-B-C as shown in the chart. Presently, it is the last wave of the Expanded Flat pattern, wave (C), which should be doing a 5-wave impulse or diagonal. Wave 1 and 2 of this 5-wave impulse/diagonal have completed and now it is in wave 3 with wave 4 and 5 yet to go. Pattern wise, S&P 500 is doing the Expanded Flat but need to look at all the statistic to double confirm.
Wave ((3)) = 2872.87
Wave (A) = 2553.80
Wave (B) = 2939.86 (121.0% vs 123.6% Wave (A))
So far Wave (B) is meeting the guideline. Now look at Wave (C). Should Wave (C) doing a 5-wave impulse, it should behave very closely to Elliott wave basic model of w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 1.618 : 1 at least.
Wave 1 = 2603.54
Wave 2 = 2815.15 (62.92% vs 61.8% Wave 1)
Wave 3 = 2270.98 (calculated 161.8% Wave 1)
Wave 4 = 2478.86 (calculated 38.2% Wave 3)
Wave 5 = 2142.54 (calculated 100% Wave 1)
Now if present correction is Wave ((4)) and by Fibonacci retracement guideline, it should pull back to between 38.2% to 50%. From the chart above, S&P 500% is already below the 38.2% and the Expanded Flat structure still yet to complete. Therefore, the next destination shall be the 50% level at around 2340. For an Expanded Flat, the guideline for Wave C is between 123.6% to 161.8% of Wave A. This range calculates to be between 2462.69 to 2315.22.
If Wave (C) is a 5-wave impulse, the end point of Wave 5 is already beyond the 50% Fibonacci level for a wave 4 correction and also exceeds the guideline for the Expanded Flat structure. Thus, there is a high possibility that Wave (C) going to be a diagonal instead of impulse. Unfortunately, there isn't any Fibonacci guideline for a diagonal structure. The only characteristic is wave 3 is not the shortest, wave 4 is expected to overlap wave 1 and wave 4 cannot move beyond start of wave 2. Given now length of Wave 3 already exceeded length of Wave 1, this makes a possible rebound coming soon for wave 4. With wave 4 expected to overlap wave 1, this will mean the rebound should bring S&P 500 above 2603.54 but not exceeding 2815.15. Thereafter shall be the final drop of wave 5.
