The 3rd function of the Elliott Wave Calculator -- Degree Calculator, after making some modifications, has appeared to be the most powerful Elliott Wave calculation tools compared to the Fibonacci Calculator and Correction Calculator. The modification was done to the 2nd feature of the Degree Calculator, the All Degree calculation. In the earlier version, the All Degree calculation feature of the Degree Calculator could only display the sub wave 1 of the next higher degree. As such, to view the 5-wave structure of sub wave 3 and 5, the other feature of the Degree Calculator -- Main & Sub calculation has to be used. In doing so, this has result in some tedious action despite the overall result still being the same. After the modification, it is now able to choose to display either sub wave 1, 3 or 5 of the next higher degree just with a button click. This has brought in more flexibility, ease of use and most important of all time saving in producing all the calculation. The Main & Sub calculation still has its use as the All Degree part can only house until the Minor degree. Anything below the Minor degree, Minute and Minuette degree will have to use the Main & Sub feature.
Now take a case study to demonstrate the capability of this Degree Calculator.
Above is the top level chart of Kep Corp from 1995 till present. During these periods, Kep Corp has as shown from the chart completed a SuperCycle wave 3 in 1996, a SuperCycle wave 4 in 2001, a SuperCycle wave 5 in 2007, a SuperCycle wave C in 2008, a new SuperCycle wave 1 in 2011 and a new SuperCycle wave 2 in 2016. Presently, it is in the new SuperCycle wave 3. Due to its extensive data, the Degree Calculator can start from the SuperCycle level with the following inputs as these values were already happened.
1. SuperCycle C (SuperCycle 0) at $2.172
2. SuperCycle 1 at $9.038
3. SuperCycle 2 at $4.109
The above is what was been generated based on the 3 inputs. As mentioned Kep Corp is now in SuperCycle 3 and from the sub-level of SuperCycle, 2 Cycle degree waves have already completed. S3C1 at $8.582 in 2018 and S3C2 at $5.67 in 2018. Putting these 2 new inputs into the Degree Calculator and re-calculate shall produce a different set of calculated data.
Can see that the generated data from Primary degree down are all different that the first iteration. The interest part is the Minor degree as Kep Corp to be exact in degree level is in SuperCycle wave 3, Cycle wave 3, Primary wave 1, Intermediate wave 1 and Minor wave 3 (S3C3P1I1M3). This is shown in the button click w3, w3, w1, w1 in the snapshot above.
The above is the chart of Kep Corp since hitting the bottom at $5.67 last year till now after hitting a recent high of $6.38 followed by a low at $5.98 and then the present rebound. If these 3 points are M0, M1 and M2 of the Minor degree of the Intermediate wave 1 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave 3 of SuperCycle wave 3 (S3C3P1I1), then the Degree Calculator has hit the nail on its calculation (look at the blue circle section of the snapshot).
M1 : $6.38 (Acutal) vs $6.389 (Calculated) -- difference +0.14%
M2 : $5.98 (Actual) vs $5.945 (Calculated) -- difference -0.59%
The difference between the actual and calculated value are within +/- 1%. The whole thing just takes 2 iterations and went through 4 degree levels in between. This is the type of precision the Algorithm of the Elliott Wave Calculator can produce.
Next, if the Main & Sub feature is being used to display the 5-wave structure of the Minor wave 3 (from $5.98 to projected $7.108), the Elliott Wave Calculator will be able to reveal even more interesting data. The broken down level (Minute degree) actually display the ups and downs between $5.98 - $7.108. Since it is Minute degree meaning the price movement of each of the Minute wave can be completed within days. As such, to prevent anyone trying to take advantage and punt for quick profit from the calculated value, this will not be revealed here.
What's being demonstrate from the case study above is from a top level Elliott Wave projection (using S0, S1, S2 to project S3, S4 and S5), the projected value is being used to count backward to determine convergence point. Should a convergence point emerges, more likely the projected future value should be correct. In another perspective, with the initial projected future value, backward count to the present count. Putting in the actual value of the present count will refine the projected value to make it closer to the actual value (when happens in the future).
Kep Corp is one of those few stocks in Singapore stock market that follows Elliott Wave principle closely, as such, the precision of the calculated to actual value is very close, within +/- 1% type. There are stocks that do not follow Elliott Wave principle as closely as Kep Corp in term of Fibonacci ratio, the precision of those calculated to actual value all come in within +/- 2.5%. STI is one of them as blogged in STI Analysis -- Recap 2018 & Looking Ahead 2019. Of course there are stocks that totally don't follow Elliott Wave principle and the Elliott Wave Calculator can tell when Elliott Wave rules violation occur.
This Elliott Wave Calculator despite having 3 functions now (Fibonacci Calculator, Correction Calculator and Degree Calculator) is not the final product of my development. There are still other functions which I would like to include and there are also research being carried out on whether the Algorithm can be refined so that the number of iterations can be reduced to produce an even better precision. Unfortunately, I am all alone on this development (from scratch) hence it probably take me some times to get all those things done. What was being developed so far is approximately 1.5 months of work despite I'm not a software engineer by trade.
