Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (51)
STI-2
STI hit an intra-day low of 3040.16 on 29th Aug 2019, breaking below the 3054 (Fibonacci retracement 78.6%) level. Despite ending the week with a rebound to 3106.52, the probability remains high that the STI-2 wave count is going to be invalidated. Conservatively, 90% of the time when a so-called wave 2 hit below 78.6% Fibonacci retracement it will go on to invalidate that wave count. However, it is still not the time to fully rule out this scenario. By the rule of Elliott wave principle, invalidate wave count occurs when any of the 3 rules is broken. In this case, this scenario can only be mathematically impossible when STI continues the descend and falls below 2955.68. For those who still believe in the bullishness going forward, pray hard STI will not breakdown at 2955.68.
STI-2
STI hit an intra-day low of 3040.16 on 29th Aug 2019, breaking below the 3054 (Fibonacci retracement 78.6%) level. Despite ending the week with a rebound to 3106.52, the probability remains high that the STI-2 wave count is going to be invalidated. Conservatively, 90% of the time when a so-called wave 2 hit below 78.6% Fibonacci retracement it will go on to invalidate that wave count. However, it is still not the time to fully rule out this scenario. By the rule of Elliott wave principle, invalidate wave count occurs when any of the 3 rules is broken. In this case, this scenario can only be mathematically impossible when STI continues the descend and falls below 2955.68. For those who still believe in the bullishness going forward, pray hard STI will not breakdown at 2955.68.
Came across some analysis claiming there is an Island reversal in STI after rebound from 3040.16, a potentially positive sign as shown above. However, this Island reversal is questionable as the level at which the gap down and gap up occur must be the same. In this case, such observation did not occur.
Above is what generated by the Degree Calculator if 3040.16 is the bottom of Intermediate wave 2. The rebound that is happening now should at least able to move 3285.386 "non-stop" within weeks (preferably within 1 to 2 week times) as this is the Minor degree. Time factor is another perspective that could determine the validity of the wave count and that is something most Elliott wave analysts that came across have overlooked. Should STI unable to achieve that guideline, the probability of STI-2 scenario going to be invalidated will up another level.
STI-N
This scenario still remain valid. To recap for this scenario, STI SuperCycle wave 1 ended in 2015 at 3549.85. Now STI is in SuperCycle wave 2. Cycle degree wave A of SuperCycle wave 2 ended at 2528.44 in 2016. Cycle degree wave B of SuperCycle wave 2 ended at 3641.65 in 2018. STI is now in Cycle degree wave C of SuperCycle wave 2. For this scenario, the best chance to exit apart from being SuperCycle degree wave 1 was Cycle degree wave B at 3641.65. The next best chance to exit shall be Primary degree wave B of Cycle degree wave C which should be 3415.18 (19 Apr 2019). Most probably missed all those exit opportunities by now if STI-N scenario is the true wave count. As such, present time, any rebound shall be the last opportunity to exit.
Above shown the bear market line for this wave count. With STI bottomed at 1455.47 in Mar 2009 and hitting the SuperCycle wave 1 at 3549.85 in 2015, a 20% fall occurs at 3130.974, a line that determine STI is in bear market. Referring to the write-up STI, Bear Market& Elliott Wave in 28th Oct 2018, for major correction in particular Cycle degree and above, wave A will move into bear market (correct more than 20%) while wave B will rebound back above the bear market line before wave C sends it down again. This is very similar to the case as shown above for STI-N scenario. As time progress, while STI-2 is still consider valid wave count, more and more evidences are pointing the true wave count is biased toward STI-N scenario.
