Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (56)
In this analysis, the focus will be solely on the STI-N scenario, going into the detail wave count down to the Intermediate degree level.
In this analysis, the focus will be solely on the STI-N scenario, going into the detail wave count down to the Intermediate degree level.
The above is the wave count from the peak of 2015 till today 5th Feb 2020. A recap for STI-N scenario, peak of 2015 was SuperCycle degree wave 1, ((1)) and what's followed is the SuperCycle degree wave 2, ((2)) corrective wave. Elliott corrective wave consists of more than 20 patterns and it more complicated in counting as compared to the impulsive wave. Hence, along the way, there should be couple of possibilities. The above is just one the possible wave count with so far look closely matching the present situation.
The SuperCycle degree wave 2, ((2)) unfolds into a double-three combination pattern, Cycle degree wave (W)-(X)-(Y). Wave (W) completed in 2016 at 2528.44 and wave (X) was the peak in 2018 at 3641.65. Since then, STI is in the wave (Y), the last leg of the SuperCycle wave 2, ((2)). Wave ((Y)) is further broken down into the Primary degree level of wave A-B-C with wave A completed in Oct 2018 at 2955.68. It seems like wave B yet to fully complete at the moment based on the wave count involving the Minor degree level.
The movement of global stock markets presently are strongly linked to the ongoing Wuhan Coronavirus. As it is event triggered, any news or development be it negative or positive could lead to a possible re-count of wave (Y).
Assuming it is indeed doing the wave count as shown above, the interesting part shall be where is the ending point of wave (Y) or SuperCycle degree wave 2, ((2)).
Above is the value generated by the Correction Calculator with value of SuperCycle wave 1, Cycle wave (W) and Cycle wave (X). Guideline states that wave Y could be 61.8%, 100% or 123.6% of wave W as highlighted in the above figure. This represents possible value of 3010.419, 2620.24 and 2379.187.
The immediate monitoring would be wave B or wave (Y), how much it will rebound to the upside.
A recap of how STI performed during the 2003 SARS outbreak.
A recap of how STI performed during the 2003 SARS outbreak.
SARS first reported was on November 2002 when STI started the descend or extend the descend as it was originally on a downtrend. It was until Jan 2003 then it managed to find a temporary bottom, the wave A of Elliott wave and staged a rebound, wave B for like a week, doing a between 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, a very common level for wave B. Thereafter, it continued the fall till Mar 2003 hitting the bottom at 1205.31. This bottom also ended the already existing downtrend. From the period of first reported SARS case till STI hit the bottom, it took a total of 4 months when STI fell from 1437 to 1205.31, a drop of 16.12%.
From the above chart on the SARS period, a very clearly defined wave A-B-C can be spotted and even the sub-degree of wave a-b-c for each of the wave A and C was also clearly defined.
As a reference for current Wuhan Coronavirus, a similar Elliott wave pattern could be same as both the Wuhan Coronasvirus and SARS are of the same nature but different underlying. So far global markets reacted to the wave A phase since after CNY. The rebound currently seen could be the wave B for it. The present rebound was mainly due to news that there was report of breakthrough in finding the vaccination. However, the fact remain, it is still under trial how effective the vaccine is and at the same time number of confirmed cases and death continue to rise each day.
