Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (55)
STI-2
Don't think anybody will still believe this Elliott wave count is the correct one going forward now with the Wuhan Coronavirus (aka Novel Coronavirus) going on. Technically speaking, this wave count is not yet broken as there isn't any rule violation. Rule violation will occur when STI falls below the 2955.68 in October 2018. Thus, still can't remove this scenario off the analysis.
STI-N
This STI-N scenario was first included in the analysis in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (46) in May 2019. This wave count indicates STI after hitting the peak in 2015 after the 2008 GFC is in SuperCycle degree wave 2 correction phase. Yes, SuperCycle degree wave 2 correction started in 2015 and now it is into its 5th year. Possible ? Yes, SuperCycle degree has a time frame of multi-decades hence, for one of the wave to last couple of year to a decade is very much the normal.
Then in May 2019, the analysis was still unsure whether the Cycle degree wave B still ongoing or already completed in the peak of 2018. The in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (47) in June 2019 the analysis was biased towards Cycle wave B was completed in 2018 and STI after the peak in 2018 is in Cycle wave C phase. In that analysis from the look of the pattern, SuperCycle wave 2 looks doing a Flat pattern (3-3-5) with a possible target being calculated by the Fibonacci Calculator to be as low as 2165.294 for the case the 5-wave down is not a diagonal wave. The following reproduces what was being posted back in that edition.
STI-2
Don't think anybody will still believe this Elliott wave count is the correct one going forward now with the Wuhan Coronavirus (aka Novel Coronavirus) going on. Technically speaking, this wave count is not yet broken as there isn't any rule violation. Rule violation will occur when STI falls below the 2955.68 in October 2018. Thus, still can't remove this scenario off the analysis.
STI-N
This STI-N scenario was first included in the analysis in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (46) in May 2019. This wave count indicates STI after hitting the peak in 2015 after the 2008 GFC is in SuperCycle degree wave 2 correction phase. Yes, SuperCycle degree wave 2 correction started in 2015 and now it is into its 5th year. Possible ? Yes, SuperCycle degree has a time frame of multi-decades hence, for one of the wave to last couple of year to a decade is very much the normal.
Then in May 2019, the analysis was still unsure whether the Cycle degree wave B still ongoing or already completed in the peak of 2018. The in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (47) in June 2019 the analysis was biased towards Cycle wave B was completed in 2018 and STI after the peak in 2018 is in Cycle wave C phase. In that analysis from the look of the pattern, SuperCycle wave 2 looks doing a Flat pattern (3-3-5) with a possible target being calculated by the Fibonacci Calculator to be as low as 2165.294 for the case the 5-wave down is not a diagonal wave. The following reproduces what was being posted back in that edition.
Believe nobody then when reading the analysis would have believe STI will hit that low. Now with STI at 3153.73 (as of 31st Jan 2020) and the Wuhan Coronavirus still not in controllable and stable condition, it is not impossible for STI to drop there. After all, taking 2009 trough as the starting point of SuperCycle wave 1 and 2015 peak as end of SuperCycle wave 1, a typical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for SuperCycle wave 2 will land it at around 2250 region.
In STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (53) dated September 2019, a detail analysis was carried out for the case of Cycle wave B ended in 2018 detailing the possible downsides that was generated by both the Fibonacci Calculator and Correction Calculator.
From above, the possible downside can range from 2528.44 down to 1840.476. Am sure then nobody would have believe that analysis and maybe even today some might not believe that analysis too.
As far as concerned correction pattern wise, STI is not done yet to the downside. With the Wuhan Coronavirus expecting to go on for couple of months (in fact already 2nd month into it as it was first detected in December 2019) before it is stabilized, STI has enough time frame to drop to those generated levels.
It is always better to mentally prepared for STI to crush to those downside so that when it's actually happen, you won't feel the fear and panic for it. Without fear and panic, a cool and calm head should enable one to really pick the bargain for the SuperCycle wave 3.
Finally, for the pattern research that was done in January 2018, STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (II) is reproduced as followed.
Nothing rocket science about the above pattern finding, it was just pure analytical work by picking out the peak and trough for STI since 1984 and to determine a regular pattern for the peak and trough. Why 1984 ? Well I do not have STI data prior to 1984 and also 1985 was the first recession for post-independence purposely induced by the Government. As seen from the above figure, the 2018 to be a peak year was true and if by following the pattern, 2020 would be the trough for it. Based on the Elliott wave count for STI-N scenario with STI now in Cycle wave C, it is on track to be true too.
Elliott Wave is relatively accurate in predicting the trend of the stock market especially at higher degree level but it is not a crystal ball to indicate what events will trigger it.
Elliott Wave is relatively accurate in predicting the trend of the stock market especially at higher degree level but it is not a crystal ball to indicate what events will trigger it.
