Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (61)
Finally, the low of 2528.44 in 2016 has broken when STI registered an intra-day low of 2510.88 on 13th Mar 2020. This has a lot of implication towards the analysis work done so far which will be elaborate further.
STI-N
Red Wave Count (INVALIDATED)
This now become the only wave count for STI to play out and so far the movement of STI has shown it is following this wave count.
The 5-wave down for Cycle wave (C) as analyzed above started in 2018. Each of the wave (1,2,3,4,5) is Primary degree. The time frame for Primary degree ranges from few months to couple of years making the Cycle degree having a time frame ranging from 1 to several years. With STI still have wave 3 (maybe), wave 4 and wave 5 to go and there are at least 8 more months to complete 2020 and this gives a high probability that STI can see a trough in 2020 as defined by the above pattern. To further breakdown, Primary wave 1 took 5 months (May to Oct 2018), Primary wave 2 took 9 months (Oct 2018 to Jul 2019) and Primary wave 3 already into its 8th month and could be ending soon. Remaining 8 months to accommodate Primary wave 4 and 5 is very reasonable given that the remaining 2 waves should not take longer time than the previous 3 given the fear and panic factor.
This is the best I can do to show appreciation to those who faithfully read and confident in my analysis so far.
Finally, the low of 2528.44 in 2016 has broken when STI registered an intra-day low of 2510.88 on 13th Mar 2020. This has a lot of implication towards the analysis work done so far which will be elaborate further.
STI-N
The above is the wave count with STI in the Cycle wave (C) stage of the SuperCycle wave ((2)). The 2 possible wave counts for Cycle wave (C) are denoted as Red and Purple.
Red Wave Count (INVALIDATED)
As STI fell below 2723.269 meaning wave C has retracted more than 161.8% of wave A making it invalid in this wave count. Reason was mentioned in previous post.
Purple Wave Count
Above is the 5-wave generated value from the Fibonacci Calculator for Cycle wave (C). As mentioned previously, 5-wave pattern in corrective phase is more complicated than motive phase as it does not show consistently following the common Fibonacci ratio guideline. Thus, the generated wave 3 value might not be the true or could be way off. However, one thing for sure, at current STI level, length of wave 3 is already longer than wave 1 thereby obeying the EW rule that wave 3 is never the shortest among the 3. Meaning STI is now qualified to do wave 4. The intra-day rebound from 2510.88 to closing at 2634.00 could be the start of wave 4. Wave 4 has 2 possible cases too -- a normal or a diagonal. The normal case will just a rebound of not more than 38.2% Fibonacci ratio with reference to wave 3 while a diagonal will lead the rebound to overlap the bottom of wave 1 (2955.68). The nature of wave 4 will also later have an implication of how wave 5 will turn out.
The above is assuming 2510.88 is the end of wave 3 and generated value for wave 4 and wave 5 if it is not a diagonal wave going forward. The wave 5 value also fits into the range of the possible Cycle wave (C) (shown below) that was generated last year.
The falling below 2528.44 further enhanced the correctness of the above pattern mapping which was done in January 2018. The peak which happened in 2018 is already a fact. The question is the trough if according to the above pattern should be 2020. Breaking below 2016 low of 2528.44 has put it a 99% chance of correctness. The remaining 1% is if the trough drags on till 2021. If so, the above pattern will be totally invalid.
The 5-wave down for Cycle wave (C) as analyzed above started in 2018. Each of the wave (1,2,3,4,5) is Primary degree. The time frame for Primary degree ranges from few months to couple of years making the Cycle degree having a time frame ranging from 1 to several years. With STI still have wave 3 (maybe), wave 4 and wave 5 to go and there are at least 8 more months to complete 2020 and this gives a high probability that STI can see a trough in 2020 as defined by the above pattern. To further breakdown, Primary wave 1 took 5 months (May to Oct 2018), Primary wave 2 took 9 months (Oct 2018 to Jul 2019) and Primary wave 3 already into its 8th month and could be ending soon. Remaining 8 months to accommodate Primary wave 4 and 5 is very reasonable given that the remaining 2 waves should not take longer time than the previous 3 given the fear and panic factor.
Above is the generated value for SuperCycle wave ((2)) done September 2019 and STI is on track to hit one of those value (less 2528.44) to complete the whole SuperCycle wave ((2)) correction which started since 2015.
Previously was mentioned it is still too early to bargain hunt, now it is time to start monitoring for opportunity. No cue will be published to signal actual bargain hunt phase for strategic reason. What's presented so far is only part of the analysis work done. There are more minor and complex detailed data which termed as confidential that did not publish. This is purely for strategic reason.
Also it is time to start monitoring for Covid-19 bottoming out (or peaking if one see it from other perspective) in Singapore, watch out for the triggering point -- fatality ! Ignoring anything from official as they are usually behind the curve in either analyzing situation or implementing measures.
Also it is time to start monitoring for Covid-19 bottoming out (or peaking if one see it from other perspective) in Singapore, watch out for the triggering point -- fatality ! Ignoring anything from official as they are usually behind the curve in either analyzing situation or implementing measures.
This is the best I can do to show appreciation to those who faithfully read and confident in my analysis so far.
