STI plunged to an intra-day low of 2510.88 on 13th Mar 2020 breaking the low of 2528.44 in 2016 and that is the event I've been anticipating and waiting for as everything just working according to the script. This event finally allows me to move into the next step -- start monitoring for opportunity.
The list of stocks that I had compiled in 2015 when I started the 孙子兵法 system in building up portfolio finally can be taken out of the freezer. This list consists of stocks that I wanted to add to my portfolio during the next financial crisis. Since 2015 till now, lot of things have changed. The fundamental of those stocks could have changed too. So, it is time to reassess their respective fundamental and at the same time re-evaluate their respective margin of safety price level too.
Frankly speaking, since the start of strategic divestment of the Strategic section of my portfolio in September 2019, I kind of like in "semi-hiatus" in stock market to eventually "completely hiatus" in December when the Strategic section was fully divested. Taking up new passion (not really new just that something I wanted to do at a younger age but never got a chance and time to do then) and "enjoying" some existing passions. Despite the bullish sentiment from stock markets and analysts, I still continue to wait as I have strong confident in my own analysis the year 2020 is the one. Looking at those EW analysis in the blog should know already.
To be exact, during this current crisis (due to Covid-19), I am more prepared, more calm, more relax, less panic and less fear compared to the 2007-2009 period. Perhaps, it was the lesson that I've learned and the stringent self critical that I put on myself for what I've not done right in the 2007-2008 GFC. To certain extend, I even feel more "enjoyable and satisfying" to see market crashes like nobody business now. Don't get me wrong it is not because I have short positions that gain from it but rather it is that kind of satisfaction that I get from the toughest challenge in this world -- analyzing the irrational stock market correctly, beating irrational with rational.
Although now it is a very simple straight forward thing, I get the financial crisis that I've been anticipating and waiting for, stock prices are no longer expensive (well not really super dirt cheap either at this moment), my list of stocks is there, the cash holding is there (additional cash holding after the strategic divestment last year) and I just have to wait for the correct timing to pull the trigger. However, now I have second thought. Given the outcome that I've achieved in the Strategic section after the divestment last year, this prompts me a question, is the conventional way of investment still remain attractive ? The very low cost I could get (ideally $0 cost) from the Strategic section doesn't give me any incentive to continue with the conventional investment methodology which I have to put in and lock in the capital to the stock.
So it won't be a surprise at the end of this financial crisis, I did nothing via the conventional methodology and instead pile everything into the strategic methodology. With that, I still retain most part of the cash holding (putting in bank to get peanut interest) and yet enjoying a much better profit margin than the conventional mean.
Another thing different from 2007-2009 is during that time, I only have 2 portfolio -- Cash and CPFIS. The cash portfolio only consists of 3 stocks -- First Reit, Cambridge Industrial Trust and Genting while the CPFIS consists of 2 -- First Reit and STI ETF. Now, I have a cash portfolio (divided into Strategic and non-Strategic section, holding 9 stocks), a CPFIS portfolio (2 stocks), a SRS portfolio (0 at the moment), an Incubator portfolio (3 stocks) and a kid portfolio (4 stocks, using my children ang pow over the year to invest) so relying just solely on conventional mean might not be the best way going forward.
While now it is the time to monitor for opportunity, it is also the time to refine all the strategies that I've planed for so that I could get the best out of this financial crisis for all my portfolios.
STI breaking below 2528.44 is like the morning alarm clock that wakes me up (back from hiatus), feeling fresh from the sleep and ready for the go.
The list of stocks that I had compiled in 2015 when I started the 孙子兵法 system in building up portfolio finally can be taken out of the freezer. This list consists of stocks that I wanted to add to my portfolio during the next financial crisis. Since 2015 till now, lot of things have changed. The fundamental of those stocks could have changed too. So, it is time to reassess their respective fundamental and at the same time re-evaluate their respective margin of safety price level too.
Frankly speaking, since the start of strategic divestment of the Strategic section of my portfolio in September 2019, I kind of like in "semi-hiatus" in stock market to eventually "completely hiatus" in December when the Strategic section was fully divested. Taking up new passion (not really new just that something I wanted to do at a younger age but never got a chance and time to do then) and "enjoying" some existing passions. Despite the bullish sentiment from stock markets and analysts, I still continue to wait as I have strong confident in my own analysis the year 2020 is the one. Looking at those EW analysis in the blog should know already.
To be exact, during this current crisis (due to Covid-19), I am more prepared, more calm, more relax, less panic and less fear compared to the 2007-2009 period. Perhaps, it was the lesson that I've learned and the stringent self critical that I put on myself for what I've not done right in the 2007-2008 GFC. To certain extend, I even feel more "enjoyable and satisfying" to see market crashes like nobody business now. Don't get me wrong it is not because I have short positions that gain from it but rather it is that kind of satisfaction that I get from the toughest challenge in this world -- analyzing the irrational stock market correctly, beating irrational with rational.
Although now it is a very simple straight forward thing, I get the financial crisis that I've been anticipating and waiting for, stock prices are no longer expensive (well not really super dirt cheap either at this moment), my list of stocks is there, the cash holding is there (additional cash holding after the strategic divestment last year) and I just have to wait for the correct timing to pull the trigger. However, now I have second thought. Given the outcome that I've achieved in the Strategic section after the divestment last year, this prompts me a question, is the conventional way of investment still remain attractive ? The very low cost I could get (ideally $0 cost) from the Strategic section doesn't give me any incentive to continue with the conventional investment methodology which I have to put in and lock in the capital to the stock.
So it won't be a surprise at the end of this financial crisis, I did nothing via the conventional methodology and instead pile everything into the strategic methodology. With that, I still retain most part of the cash holding (putting in bank to get peanut interest) and yet enjoying a much better profit margin than the conventional mean.
Another thing different from 2007-2009 is during that time, I only have 2 portfolio -- Cash and CPFIS. The cash portfolio only consists of 3 stocks -- First Reit, Cambridge Industrial Trust and Genting while the CPFIS consists of 2 -- First Reit and STI ETF. Now, I have a cash portfolio (divided into Strategic and non-Strategic section, holding 9 stocks), a CPFIS portfolio (2 stocks), a SRS portfolio (0 at the moment), an Incubator portfolio (3 stocks) and a kid portfolio (4 stocks, using my children ang pow over the year to invest) so relying just solely on conventional mean might not be the best way going forward.
While now it is the time to monitor for opportunity, it is also the time to refine all the strategies that I've planed for so that I could get the best out of this financial crisis for all my portfolios.
STI breaking below 2528.44 is like the morning alarm clock that wakes me up (back from hiatus), feeling fresh from the sleep and ready for the go.
