Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (63)
STI-N
The wave 4 didn't start after STI hit 2309.9 on 19th Mar 2020 but instead went further down to 2208.42 on 23rd Mar 2020 before staging the rebound.
2208.42 definitely pierced through the generated value of 2276.751 from the Fibonacci Calculator for wave 3. This is nothing wrong as 2276.751 is the 161.8% Fibonacci ratio only and with it at 2208.42, this gives a Fibonacci ratio of 171.8% that all.
So, the question now is the rebound STI was having presently -- wave 4, is it Primary wave 4 or Intermediate wave ((iv)) ?
STI-N
The wave 4 didn't start after STI hit 2309.9 on 19th Mar 2020 but instead went further down to 2208.42 on 23rd Mar 2020 before staging the rebound.
2208.42 definitely pierced through the generated value of 2276.751 from the Fibonacci Calculator for wave 3. This is nothing wrong as 2276.751 is the 161.8% Fibonacci ratio only and with it at 2208.42, this gives a Fibonacci ratio of 171.8% that all.
So, the question now is the rebound STI was having presently -- wave 4, is it Primary wave 4 or Intermediate wave ((iv)) ?
Above is the STI chart showing the 2 possibilities -- Primary wave 4 (Purple) or Intermediate wave ((iv)) (red). The detail wave count for lower Elliott wave degree from 2015 to 2019 were omitted to make it less messy.
Above is the generated value for wave 4 and wave 5 after knowing the wave 1 to 3 value. The one of the left is for Primary degree while the right is for the Intermediate degree of the Primary wave 3. The 2 values ( Primary wave 4 and Intermediate wave ((iv)) ) are pretty much close to each other -- 2658.504 vs 2619.250. So how to differentiate which is which ? Time frame is the answer. For Primary wave 4, the whole process to reach its targeted value could take few months with minimum of 1 month. On the other hand for Intermediate wave ((iv)), minimum few weeks will settle for it.
Another visible differentiation is for Primary wave 4 case, there should be couple of "Any 3" structure along the way. This "Any 3" structure is the Intermediate degree and could be as simple as zigzag to the complicated double-three pattern.
Note also, the above generated value does not take into account of a diagonal 5-wave. Should a diagonal 5-wave occur, the wave 4 will rebound to above the bottom of wave 1. For Primary wave 4, the value is 2955.68 and for Intermediate wave ((iv)), the value is 3040.16. So if STI is able to rebound to such a value, don't get quick in jumping into conclusion that bottom already occurred at 2208.42. There is rule to govern when to rule out for the diagonal wave behavior.
A Primary wave 4 scenario would be the best. This means it just need another thrust down to complete Primary 5 and STI is done for this crisis. On the other hand, if it is the Intermediate degree, STI would need to complete another down for Intermediate wave ((v)) for Primary wave 3 then another rebound as Primary wave 4 to eventually the last thrust Primary wave 5.
While waiting for which wave 4 to unfold, there is some development for the Primary wave 5 or Cycle wave (C) or SuperCycle wave ((2)) value.
The wave C = 123.6% wave AB at 2265.722 has to rule out as STI already fell to 2208.42 with a wave 5 still yet to come. Thus, this leads to 138.2% (2103.194), 150.0% (1971.835) and 161.8% (1840.476) as the remaining possibilities. Wave C as a reference to wave AB is being used compared to the norm of wave C reference to wave A is because the correction structure is an Expanded Flat pattern.
The above is the 2008 GFC wave ratio generated by the Correction Calculator. The eventual bottom value of 1455.47 gave wave C = 156.3% of wave A. Should present crisis due to Covid-19 is as serious as the 2008 GFC, the 150% to 161.8% ratio remains a very high probability. So should STI eventually bottom out at below 2000, nothing to be panic or alarmed !
Came across maybe due to fear, panic and probably caught unprepared some said this crisis is worst than 2008 GFC. For the 2008 GFC, STI hit peak at October 2007 and eventually bottom in March 2009, it took 17 months to complete the correction. On the other hand, for present crisis, the peak actually started in 2015 and if STI indeed bottom out in 2020, the time frame for the whole correction is 5 years. 17 months vs 60 months which is worst ???
Let me recount an event back in 2008 and that was called "fear". On news that Lehman Brothers bankrupt, whole market was just plain selling. Then I was covering duty for one of my colleague. Said colleague's client called in to task me to sell 100,000 share of SingTel immediately. The quantity at the bid price wasn't enough to absorb all the 100,000 shares. Looking at the market depth, the next few level of bid price all very thin in queue. A throw at all cost of 100,000 shares would send the price of SingTel down at least 3 bids. SingTel being one of the highest weightage for STI, a drop in 3 bids could send the index down 5 to 10 points alone. That is called "fear". So far, no such incident has happened since the breakout and worsening of the Covid-19 situation.
Let me recount an event back in 2008 and that was called "fear". On news that Lehman Brothers bankrupt, whole market was just plain selling. Then I was covering duty for one of my colleague. Said colleague's client called in to task me to sell 100,000 share of SingTel immediately. The quantity at the bid price wasn't enough to absorb all the 100,000 shares. Looking at the market depth, the next few level of bid price all very thin in queue. A throw at all cost of 100,000 shares would send the price of SingTel down at least 3 bids. SingTel being one of the highest weightage for STI, a drop in 3 bids could send the index down 5 to 10 points alone. That is called "fear". So far, no such incident has happened since the breakout and worsening of the Covid-19 situation.
