Portfolio -- Jul 2020

Investment Portfolio

1. Received MapletreeInd Trust advanced distribution of 2.90 cents/unit
2. Added LendLease Reit to Strategic section at $0 cost
3. Received SingPost dividend of 1.2 cents/share
4. Received Kep DC Reit dividend of 4.375 cents/unit
5. Received CapitaMall Trust dividend of 2.11 cents/unit

Stock	Holding Price*	Market Price	Unrealized Profit/Loss	Dividend Return
Non-Strategic
CapitaMall Trust	$1.155	$1.89	+61.41%	+98.61%
First REIT	$0.5973	$0.555	-7.30%	+135.94%
Genting SP	$0.5314	$0.735	+37.74%	+36.69%
KepCorp	$7.4156	$5.40	-27.54%	+48.69%
SIA	$6.3745	$3.42	-46.64%	+37.78%
SIA MCBz300608	$1.00	$0.9175 #	-8.38%
SingPost	$1.0093	$0.71	-30.22%	+53.42%
MapletreeInd Trust	$0.8143	$3.26	+298.87%	+91.13%
Kep DC Reit	$0.9946	$2.98	+198.91%	+32.68%
Frasers Cpt Trust	$1.9021	$2.38	+24.18%	+18.74%
STI ETF	$2.3423	$2.59	+4.11%
Unrealized			+17.45%	+66.19%
Strategic
CapitaR China Trust	--	$1.23	123.0 cents/share
LendLease Reit	--	$0.625	62.50 cents/share
Cost		$0/share
Unrealized			+0.65% (% of Non-Strategic cost)
Summary
Total Unrealized	**		+13.27%	--
Total Realized (Strategic)	**		+639.12% +27.34% (% Non-Strategic cost)	+54.89% 85.256 cents/unit
Total Realized (Portfolio)	**		+29.08%	+65.42%
Cash	--	--	+26.65%	--
Total Portfolio	***		+107.77%	--
Portfolio Variant			-1.87%
STI	30/6/20 = 2589.91	30/7/20 = 2529.82	Change = -2.32%

# = Strategically tracking non SIA MCBz300608 market price.

Stock Incubator Portfolio

1. Strategically reduced Creative holding price from $3.6529/share to $3.6424/share at $0 cost, increasing Cash from +61.49% to +61.55%

Stock	Holding Price*	Market Price	Unrealized Profit/Loss	Dividend Return
Nordic	$0.100	$0.210	+108.37%	+60.93%
Valuetronics	--	$0.57	--	HK 78 cents/share
Creative	$3.6424	$2.90	-20.92%
Unrealized			+71.22%	+30.77%
Summary
Total Unrealized	**	--	+27.38%	--
Total Realized	**		+32.29%	+14.92%
Cash	--	--	+61.55%	--
Total Portfolio	***		+74.593%	--
Portfolio Variant			-2.15%
STI	30/6/20 = 2589.91	30/7/20 =  2529.82	Change = -2.32%

* = Initial Buy Price + Average on Right Issue
** =  Unrealized or Realized gain/loss in term of percentage with reference to total investment capital
*** = (total unrealized + total realized) with reference to total investment 

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (73)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (72)

STI-N

The ongoing wave count as shown in above seemingly to be invalid as the Minor wave (c) portion of the Intermediate wave ((c)) failed to execute a zigzag pattern.  As such, another wave count scenario appears

The new wave count as shown in the above figure gives Primary wave 4 a double-three structure with a zigzag - triangle combination.  STI is now in the Intermediate wave ((y)) of the double-three.  The ((y)) wave is a triangle pattern with pivot (a) and (b) already happened.  Ongoing is the pivot (c) wave.  The most commonly sighted pattern of this pivot wave is a zigzag or multiple zigzag.  Pivot (c) or Minor (c) is trying to do a zigzag or multiple zigzag (quite common in the pivot c part).  After Minor (c), there will be a down Minor (d) wave follows by an up Minor (e) wave to complete the Intermediate ((y)) and hence Primary 4.  As triangle pattern is renounced for stretching sideway with limited vertical movement, prepare for STI doing sideway movement for probably 1 to 2 months.  Intermediate wave ((x)) is a triangle itself and it took 27 days to complete.  So far, Intermediate ((y)) has entered the 37th day and probably half of the triangle has formed.  Thus, the time frame of another 1 to 2 months to completion is very possible.

Another possibility is Primary wave 4 itself is doing a triangle pattern with Minor (a) and (b) formed and now is the ongoing Minor (c).  This scenario shall be reserved when the double-three wave count as above becomes invalid.

Singapore Covid-19

打油诗

主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (72)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (71)

STI-N

It should be cleared by now that Minor wave (b) of Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave 4 has ended on 29th Jun 2020 at 2572.23.  The rebound for the past 8 days shall be the Minor wave (c) of Intermediate wave ((c)).  Of these 8 days, STI reached an intra-day high of 2707.67 on 7th Jul 2020 before pulling back to an intra-day low of 2652.07 on 9th Jul 2020.  This pull back should be the Minute wave b of the Minor wave (c) of Intermediate wave ((c)).  How low will be the pull back ?  A 38% to 79% Fibonacci ratio is the guideline so be prepared for this range.  Just for record, Minor wave (b) at 2572.23 is 76.5% pull back.  At 2652.07, the pull back is 41.1% Fibonacci ratio, fits well into the 38% to 79%.  Minute degree has a time frame of days, the pull back only happened for 2 days so STI could experience another few more days of pull back to hit the 79% ratio.

How long Minor wave (c) to complete the Intermediate wave ((c)) and Primary wave 4 ?  Unfortunately, no rule or even guideline to specifically govern that.  However, looking at all the duration for the Primary wave 4 so far as shown in the chart above.  Some possibility could be worked out.

Intermediate wave ((a))

Minor (a)  --  4 days

Minor (b)  -- 5 days

Minor (c)  -- 9 days

Total 18 days

Intermediate wave ((b))

Total 27 days

Intermediate wave ((c))

Minor (a)  --  7 days

Minor (b)  --  12 days

Minor (c)  --  8 days as of now

Total 27 days as of now

In Intermediate wave ((a)), there was an increasing of duration from Minor (a) to (c) with (c) being the longest.

In Intermediate wave ((c)) so far, Minor (b) duration is longer than (a).  Given that STI should see a zigzag in Minute degree (for duration of days) before end of Minor (c) which is just 4 days short of Minor (b), it is rather impossible Minor (c) cannot be longer than Minor (b) in term of duration.  If that is so, it is having the same pattern as Intermediate wave ((a)).  No, am not suggesting Minor (c) is 7+12 = 20 days like what happened in Intermediate wave ((a)) but in those range is highly possible.  Well maybe it is as you never know !

Came across analysts' view that STI will start to fall after July.  Looking at the EW analysis so far, that possibility is very high.  From now till end July, there are 14 days left.  Add those into the 8 days, the duration already exceed that of Minor (b) just like what the trend is suggesting.  Moreover, by end July, lot of hard data would have been revealed regarding the economy.  The first estimate of Q2 GDP where the nation lockdown happened coupled with corporate earning and business update that reflect the impact of the lockdown.  Any of those data came in short of expectation, the economy will be in a rough time to recover.

As mentioned in the past, Primary wave 4 is "meaningless".  How high it will go and how long it will take don't really matter.  The important is Primary wave 5, the one that can break March low.  Everything so far go according to the EW script in term not just wave count but the time frame for each of the degree in EW.

守得云开见月明, that what you can get if you have the patience to wait !

Singapore Covid-19

打油诗

主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫

Singapore GE2020 -- Psychological Perspective Part 2

Continued from Singapore GE2020 -- Psychological Perspective Part 1

There was a technically incorrectness in the previous post.  Have added a remark there and reproduced as followed :-

The scenario for which PSP, WP and SDP in combine getting 47 or more Parliament seats to deny PAP the majority to form the government is ONLY TRUE when PSP, WP and SDP came into the election as a coalition and not just individual political party.  As they entered the election as individual party, the correct term should be just "to deny PAP the majority to form government automatically".

What's that mean ?  After reading this post, you should have a clear idea of the abovementioned.

Now, if I were to go onto the street and ask people "What you think of Singapore having a coalition government ?".  I won't be surprise the immediate response by most will be "PAP no more government !".   That perception, that thinking, that logic is totally WRONG !!!

Coalition government as described from wikipedia is as followed :-

"A coalition government is a cabinet of a parliamentary government in which several parties cooperate. The usual reason given for this arrangement is that no party on its own can achieve a majority in the parliament."

Now pay particular attention to the following description :-

"coalitions can come in two forms. The first is produced by two or more parties joining forces after fighting elections separately to form a majority government. However, some coalitions (or alliances) are already decided before elections to give the parties the best chance of immediate government after the election."

PAP can form the government of the day by more than 1 ways.

1.  Winning at least 2/3 of the Parliament seats meaning we could either have 0 opposition or not more than 1/3.  This is what we have all these decades.

2. Winning majority of the Parliament seats but fail to secure more than 2/3 of the seats, meaning in GE2020, PAP win at least 47 but less than 62 Parliament seats.

3. A coalition government led by PAP.  This can only happen when all the participating political parties fail to win at least 47.  As such, PAP who has the highest winning among all the political parties will be tasked to joint alliance or seek cooperation from another party (or parties) to form the government of the day.  The coalition itself must have a combine seats of majority (47 in this case)

I bet not many people can know of the 3rd method as all along we are being accustomed to PAP having the majority win in the election.  Well, if mathematically is not impossible, there will be a chance it can or will happen.  If that really happens, don't get shock and alarm.

In this GE, the number of seats each political parties contesting is as followed :-

PAP -- 93
PSP -- 24
WP -- 21
SDP -- 11
PV -- 10
NSP -- 10
RP -- 6
SPP -- 5
RDU -- 5
SDA -- 5
PPP -- 1

Since all political parties came into this election as individual party and not coalition, PAP is the only one that can get 47 or more to achieve the majority to form the government.

In the event that PAP fail to get 47, this will result in a coalition government led by the political party with the highest winning.  PAP will still be able to form the government (to be exact coalition government) as long as they win 25 or more seats as 24 is the maximum PSP can get.  PAP can only be denied to form the government if they couldn't achieve the highest winning seats among all parties.

What if both PAP and PSP get 24 and tie at being highest winning ?  Well frankly speaking I also not sure exactly how they going to resolve who will be the government.  The chance of PAP only winning 24 out of 93 is 25.8% AND coupled with 100% win by PSP.  Mathematically is possible but the probability of that happening is a very very small percentage and can even be considered as "impossible" in this election.

From the above figure and analysis, we can see PAP has a very good "margin of safety" to still form the government of the day.  They just need to secure 25 Parliament seats and they could lead a coalition to form the government already.  So there is no need to fear that PAP cannot form the government of the day and make the wrong decision in the vote.  Not many people can analyze as above and that is why politicians can use the psychological strategic or tactics to their advantage.

Now, come the psychologically challenging part.  If you can overcome that, you are not psychological weak to let other people take advantage of.

Believe majority of the people still want a PAP government but with a fair balance of oppositions in the Parliament.  This is to ensure there is continuity in planning for the future of the nation.  There is this belief being driven into the people that if PAP is not the government everything will go haywire.  Rationally and logically, this is INCORRECT !

Singapore is a small nation with only 5.8M population with little or practically no natural resources.  As such, we have to rely on trades heavily to grow the economy.  In trade meaning import and export with other countries.  In fact, not a single country in this world can survive without doing trade with other nations.  As such, regardless PAP is the government or any other political party being the government, there shall not be any drastic change in methods to grow the nation economy.  Singapore is not US or China that kind of superpower that it can be a trend setter in dictating the global economy.  Singapore is not even part of G-20 by the way.  Any future planning is all evolved what's the global trend is.  Thus, the saying that only PAP has plan for the future and not oppositions is incorrect and flaw.

There is also perception that foreign investment will take hit if PAP is not the government or too many oppositions in the Parliament.  This is rationally and logically incorrect and flaw too.  Foreign investments will come as long as there is opportunity and stability in the county in which they feel safe to put their money in.  As a little red dot, we cannot survive without any foreign investment at all and this whoever the government of the day should know.  As for stability, so many countries out there have a multi-parties or even coalition government and they still can get foreign investments, what make Singapore so special ?

Some might have doubts about opposition parties being the government of the day and deem them unsuitable and ineffective.  Now, let me ask you a simple question, has anyone of us here live a day in our life when the government is not PAP ?  The answer is a very obvious NO.  Since we have not experienced that, on what basis can we make the comparison ?  What make you so sure life couldn't be better if PAP is not the government ?

Singapore Covid-19

打油诗

主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫

Singapore GE2020 -- Psychological Perspective Part 1

If said Singapore GE2020 does not involve any psychological strategy, tactic or mind game, it is totally impossible.  It is not that psychological strategy or tactic is incorrect BUT to those purposely taking advantage of others' psychological weakness is definitely an immoral thing to do.

There are 93 Parliament seats in this election coming from 17 GRCs and 14 SMCs.  Of the 17 GRCs, 11 of them are 5-members GRC while the remaining 6 are 4-members GRC.  For any political party to form the government of the day, they must secure at least 50% of the seats (at least 47 in this case).  Another important figure is the 2/3 majority.  For those don't know what so special about the 2/3 majority, please go read up.  In this case, to deny 2/3 majority, the ruling party cannot get 62 or more seats, or the opposition must secure at least 32 seats.  We put aside those NCMP and NMP as these people do not officially represent the people.  The 3 biggest opposition parties in this election are PSP, WP and SDP with 24, 21 and 11 candidates respectively.

Firstly, we ignored the contribution of the rest of the smaller oppositions.  PSP contesting in 4 GRCs and 5 SMCs.  WP in 4 GRCs and 2 SMCs.  SDP in 2 GRCs and 3 SMCs.  The combine total of SMCs from these 3 is only 10 meaning at best they can only win maximum 10 out of 14 from the SMCs segment.  The combine total of GRCs from these 3 is also 10 out of 17.  Of the 10 GRCs, 6 are 5-member and the other 4 are 4-member.

Scenario 1
The 3 opposition parties secure the maximum of 10 SMCs.  In such case, to get 32 to deny PAP the 2/3 majority, they need 22 from the GRCs.  These 22 could be the followings :-

1. 5 out of 6 (5-members GRC)
2. 4 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 1 out of 4 (4-members GRC)
3. 3 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 2 out of 4 (4-members GRC)
4. 2 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 3 out of 4 (4-members GRC)

The above are the only allowable combinations as no other way they could secure 22.  No matter which combination, the number of GRCs they must win is 5.  To get 32, they must achieve 50% and 100% success rate for GRC and SMC respectively.

To get 47 so that they could form the next government (coalition government to be exact) as 47 out of 93 is 50.5%, they need 37 from the GRCs.  These 37 could be the followings :-

1. 6 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 2 out of 4 (4-members GRC)
2. 5 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 3 out of 4 (4-members GRC)

The above are the only allowable combinations.  The minimum number of GRCs they must win is 8 out of 10.  To get 47, they must achieve 80% and 100% success rate for GRC and SMC respectively.

Scenario 2
The 3 opposition parties can only secure a maximum 5 out of 10 SMCs.  In such case, to get 32 to deny PAP the 2/3 majority, they need 27 from the GRCs.  These 27 could be the followings :-

1. 6 out of 6 (5-members GRC)
2. 5 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 1 out of 4 (4-members GRC)
3. 4 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 2 out of 4 (4-members GRC)
4. 3 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 3 out of 4 (4-members GRC)

The above are the only allowable combinations.  The minimum number of GRCs they need to win is 6.  To get 32, they must achieve 60% and 50% success rate for GRC and SMC respectively.

To get 47 to form the next government (coalition government to be exact) they need 42 from the GRCs.  These 42 could be the followings :-

1. 6 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 3 out of 4 (4-members GRC)

The is the only allowable combinations.  The minimum number of GRCs they need to win is 9.  To get 47, they must achieve 90% and 50% success rate for GRC and SMC respectively.

Scenario 3
The opposition parties fail to win any of the SMC.  In such case, to get 32 to deny PAP the 2/3 majority, they need 32 from GRCs.  These 32 could be the followings :-

1. 6 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 1 out of 4 (4-members GRC)
2. 5 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 2 out of 4 (4-members GRC)
3. 4 out of 6 (5-members GRC) + 3 out of 4 (4-members GRC)

The above are the only allowable combinations.  The minimum number of GRCs they need to win is 7.  To get 32, they must achieve 70% success rate for GRC.

To get 47 to form the next government (coalition government to be exact), they need 47 from GRCs.  Unfortunately, there isn't allowable combination since after securing all 6 (5-members GRC), they still need 17 from the 4-members GRC.  They only have a maximum of 16 from the 4-members GRC.

From the above statistic, we get the following conclusion :-

1. To deny PAP 2/3 majority, regardless the performance of SMC (from winning 0 to all), they must need to win 7 out of the 10 GRCs they contested.

2. To form the next government, they must at least win 1 SMC and all 10 GRCs they contested or at best 10 SMCs and 8 out of 10 GRCs.

3. Winning seats from the SMC has very little impact or rather make very little different to the requirement of GRCs they need to secure.

Mathematically, the above scenarios can happen but in life things happen must include a lot of factors and not just purely mathematical basis.  Since the introduction of GRC system in 1988, PAP only lost 1 in GE2011 and GE2015.  To think they could lose 7 (to deny 2/3 majority) or 8 (to fail to form the government) in GE2020, seriously speaking do you think that is possible ?

There were talk that the opposition parties could form the coalition government.  Pure mathematical analysis it is a yes but putting in all factors and rationally, can boldly said it is a no.  So that saying is merely a psychological strategy or tactic to take advantage of the people psychological weakness (fear factor) that PAP could not form the next government.

What if we put in contribution of other smaller opposition parties ?  Again mathematically it is possible and this will open up more combinations for it to happen.  Now, if PAP couldn't win against all these smaller and weaker opposition parties, do you think they deserve to win against the bigger and stronger opposition parties ?

Remark -- Added 7th Jul 2020

The scenario for which PSP, WP and SDP in combine getting 47 or more Parliament seats to deny PAP the majority to form the government is ONLY TRUE when PSP, WP and SDP came into the election as a coalition and not just individual political party.  As they entered the election as individual party, the correct term should be just "to deny PAP the majority to form government automatically".

Singapore Covid-19

打油诗

主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫

Journey To Retirement Part 19 -- Lendlease Reit

Added Lendlease Reit to the Strategic Section of the Investment Portfolio.  The 2nd after CapitaR China Trust after a full divestment in December 2019.

Lendlease Reit was listed in SGX on October 2019 so in term of history, nothing much to talk about.  It only has currently 2 assets, 313@Somerset in Singapore and Sky Complex in Milan.  In term of financial history also nothing much to talk about.  This is the reason why it was placed into the Strategic Section.  Another reason is in the Non-Strategic Section, I already have 2 of the biggest retail reit in Singapore -- CapitaMall Trust and Frasers Cpt Trust, so adding a 3rd (well it might not consider a full retail reit) doesn't do much to diversification.

I would put it as due to "opportunity" reason for the decision to make it into my Investment Portfolio.  The Strategic Section of the Investment is aim at either a total $0 cost or very very low cost investment.  Thus, this has allowed me to provide some margin of safety against having not much historical statistic about the company.  To certain extend, I do know about 313@Somerset so it is not totally an unknown to me.

Like CapitaR China Trust, it started at $0 cost so is considered a good start.  Now, the focus is on speed of accumulation and at the same time maintaining $0 cost.  The target for accumulation shall follow that of CapitaR China Trust. 

Corporate Result -- Jul/Aug 2020

1. SIA Engg  --  17th Jul 2020  (Business Update)
2. Semb Corp  --  17th Jul 2020
3. Kep REIT  --  20th Jul 2020
4. Mapletreelog Trust  --  20th Jul 2020
5. Kep DC REIT  --  21st Jul 2020
6. MapletreeInd Trust  --  21st Jul 2020
7. CapitaMall Trust  --  22nd Jul 2020
8. Kep Infra Trust  --  22nd Jul 2020
9. Kep Pac Oak US REIT  --  22nd Jul 2020
10. First REIT  --  22nd Jul 2020
11. CapitaCom Trust  --  23rd Jul 2020
12. Ascendas Reit  --  23rd Jul 2020
13. Suntec REIT  --  23rd Jul 2020
14. Frasers Cpt Trust  --  23rd Jul 2020  (Business Update)
15. MapletreeCom Trust  --  23rd Jul 2020  (Business Update)
16. Mapletree NACT  --  27th Jul 2020  (Business Update)
17. Parkway Life REIT  --  28th Jul 2020
18. Ascott REIT  --  28th Jul 2020
19. Starhill Global  --  28th Jul 2020
20. CDL HTrust  --  29th Jul 2020
21. CapitaR China Trust  --  29th Jul 2020
22. SIA  --  29th Jul 2020  (Business Update)
23. SGX  --  30th Jul 2020
24. Kep Corp  --  30th Jul 2020
25. DBS  --  6th Aug 2020
26. UOB  --  6th Aug 2020
27. Genting Singapore  --  6th Aug 2020
28. OCBC  --  7th Aug 2020
29. Starhub  --  7th Aug 2020
30. Capitaland  --  7th Aug 2020
31. Venture  --  7th Aug 2020
32. Nordic  --  7th Aug 2020
33. Wilmar  --  11th Aug 2020
34. Lendlease Reit  --  11th Aug 2020
35. SingPost  --  11th Aug 2020  (Business Update)
36. VICOM  --  12th Aug 2020
37. UOL  --  13th Aug 2020
38. CityDev  --  13th Aug 2020
39. SBS Transit  --  13th Aug 2020
40. ComfortDelGro  --  14th Aug 2020
41. ST Engg  --  14th Aug 2020
42. SingTel  --  17th Aug 2020  (Business Update)
43. SATS  --  24th Aug 2020 (Business Update)
44. Creative  --  27th Aug 2020