STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (72)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (71)

STI-N

It should be cleared by now that Minor wave (b) of Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave 4 has ended on 29th Jun 2020 at 2572.23.  The rebound for the past 8 days shall be the Minor wave (c) of Intermediate wave ((c)).  Of these 8 days, STI reached an intra-day high of 2707.67 on 7th Jul 2020 before pulling back to an intra-day low of 2652.07 on 9th Jul 2020.  This pull back should be the Minute wave b of the Minor wave (c) of Intermediate wave ((c)).  How low will be the pull back ?  A 38% to 79% Fibonacci ratio is the guideline so be prepared for this range.  Just for record, Minor wave (b) at 2572.23 is 76.5% pull back.  At 2652.07, the pull back is 41.1% Fibonacci ratio, fits well into the 38% to 79%.  Minute degree has a time frame of days, the pull back only happened for 2 days so STI could experience another few more days of pull back to hit the 79% ratio.

How long Minor wave (c) to complete the Intermediate wave ((c)) and Primary wave 4 ?  Unfortunately, no rule or even guideline to specifically govern that.  However, looking at all the duration for the Primary wave 4 so far as shown in the chart above.  Some possibility could be worked out.

Intermediate wave ((a))

Minor (a)  --  4 days

Minor (b)  -- 5 days

Minor (c)  -- 9 days

Total 18 days

Intermediate wave ((b))

Total 27 days

Intermediate wave ((c))

Minor (a)  --  7 days

Minor (b)  --  12 days

Minor (c)  --  8 days as of now

Total 27 days as of now

In Intermediate wave ((a)), there was an increasing of duration from Minor (a) to (c) with (c) being the longest.

In Intermediate wave ((c)) so far, Minor (b) duration is longer than (a).  Given that STI should see a zigzag in Minute degree (for duration of days) before end of Minor (c) which is just 4 days short of Minor (b), it is rather impossible Minor (c) cannot be longer than Minor (b) in term of duration.  If that is so, it is having the same pattern as Intermediate wave ((a)).  No, am not suggesting Minor (c) is 7+12 = 20 days like what happened in Intermediate wave ((a)) but in those range is highly possible.  Well maybe it is as you never know !

Came across analysts' view that STI will start to fall after July.  Looking at the EW analysis so far, that possibility is very high.  From now till end July, there are 14 days left.  Add those into the 8 days, the duration already exceed that of Minor (b) just like what the trend is suggesting.  Moreover, by end July, lot of hard data would have been revealed regarding the economy.  The first estimate of Q2 GDP where the nation lockdown happened coupled with corporate earning and business update that reflect the impact of the lockdown.  Any of those data came in short of expectation, the economy will be in a rough time to recover.

As mentioned in the past, Primary wave 4 is "meaningless".  How high it will go and how long it will take don't really matter.  The important is Primary wave 5, the one that can break March low.  Everything so far go according to the EW script in term not just wave count but the time frame for each of the degree in EW.

守得云开见月明, that what you can get if you have the patience to wait !

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