Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (79)
STI-N
STI broke the 2707.67 level thereby invalidating the red label wave count as in the above chart. So, does that mean the blue label stands and STI has finally bottomed for the correction since 2015, Primary wave 5, Cycle wave (C) and SuperCycle wave ((2)) completed ? If true, whatever next is the SuperCycle wave ((3)) -- another decade of market bull run !!!
Like everybody out there, do wish STI has finally completed the SuperCycle correction since 2015 BUT realized made a very BIG MISTAKE in the wave count meaning the above is not the correct one after all. Admit the mistake being made as I don't practice those notorious pride to wear white people in this nation that giving hindsight or other form of excuses for the mistake but lacking the courage to admit it. Don't admit a mistake mean you give up the chance to learn from mistake and improve.
What concluded the above analysis was a mistake ? Firstly, the big questionable started back in Jun 2020 after STI retreated from 2839.39 and that was treated as Primary wave 4 being completed. The doubts then was the duration of Intermediate wave ((c)) being too short. Next, the doubts was mentioned in previous analysis that Intermediate wave ((iii)) of Primary wave 5 is only 97.2% of Intermediate wave ((i)) which only has a chance of 2% occurrence. Failure to revert back to the bigger picture with these 2 doubts but instead continue the wave counting and this resulting in the mistake being made.
So, what's the correct wave count now ?
The above chart shows the wave count from the 2015 till now denoting the SuperCycle, Cycle and Primary degree wave count. A notable observation is the duration of the Primary degree in the Cycle wave (C) portion.
Primary wave 1 took 6 months
Primary wave 2 took 6 months
Primary wave 3 took 11 months
Primary wave 4 as of now is 8 months.
If considered STI has indeed ended the correction on 30th Oct 2020, Primary wave 4 only took 4 months and Primary wave 5 took 5 months. Both the duration are too short if compared with those of Primary 1, 2 and 3. In additional, Primary wave 5 most of the time extends beyond Primary wave 3 and rarely doing an undercut. Thus, the bottom STI has formed on 30th Oct 2020 was the Intermediate wave ((b)) of Primary wave 4 and the upturn these past days is none other than the Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave 4. In this wave count, this has eliminated the questionable that Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave 4 duration being too short as it is being demoted to Minor degree. As such, Primary wave 5 has not even started and it does seem STI can only finally end the correction in 2021.
Primary Wave 4 Ongoing
This scenario was mentioned in
STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (74). It was said Primary wave 4 could be doing a big triangle pattern, that so far has not been invalidated as from the above chart, only axes (a) and (b) of the triangle have completed and STI is in now axes (c). Alternatively, Primary wave 4 might not be a big triangle but a simple zigzag A-B-C pattern. Which is which, only time will tell.
This is the wave count for Primary wave 4. Intermediate wave ((a)) took 3 months, Intermediate wave ((b)) took 4 months and now the 8th month is Intermediate wave ((c)). If going by consistency, Intermediate wave ((c)) could be either end by end of the year or in Jan 2021. A move above 2955.68, the low in 26th Oct 2018 is possible if it is forming a diagonal 5-wave for Cycle wave (C). November to December is the period for funds doing book closure for the year (commonly known as "window dressing") and January is also commonly known as "Capricorn Effect" and with the uncertainty of US Presidential Election out of the way plus positive news on Covid-19 vaccination, it is possible the year window dressing and capricorn effect could propel STI to hit above 2955.68 to eventually form the diagonal 5-wave.
With potential some more upside to come, this appears to be good news for STI BUT do remember, what's follow Primary wave 4 is the "deadly" Primary wave 5.
One important thing do have to remember in Elliott Wave :-
Present news or events do not dictate the trajectory of Elliott Wave instead they merely just transit the wave count to the next in the predefined structure.
Thus, cannot see any bad news or events to send STI down now doesn't mean won't as when the time is ripe, a news or event will pop up to trigger that.
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