The closing price on 20th Nov 2020 read the following :-
SATS -- $4.17
SIA -- $4.09
Looking at these closing prices, not sure whether to feel joy, please or puzzle. Have been holding SIA stocks since 2009 and in Sep 2020 decided to make a strategic diversification as accord to what have been learnt from 孙子兵法第八篇 -- 九变篇. In the strategic diversification, 56.25% of SIA share was switched to SATS. In doing so, this has increased the overall holding (SIA + SATS) by 6.25% and at the same time reduced the overall holding price $6.3745/share (SIA only) to $5.999/share (SIA+SATS) and this further reduced to $5.8764/share after accounting for the amount of capital recovered during the process (refer here).
At the point of the strategic action in Sep 2020, the holding of SIA was as followed
SIA (holding price $6.3745) -- unrealized loss 46.95%
After the strategic action in Sep 2020, the holding of SIA+SATS was as followed
SIA+SATS (holding price $5.8764) -- unrealized loss 48.34%
Well it does look like a poor decision if you compared the unrealized loss figure at that point. Now with reference to the closing price of both SIA and SATS on 20th Nov 2020, the holding now became as followed
SIA+SATS (holding price $5.8764) -- unrealized loss 29.90%
What if I didn't perform the strategic diversification and just pure holding on to SIA, the holding as of 20th Nov 2020 was as followed
SIA (holding price $6.3745) -- unrealized loss 36.13%
So, what's look like a poor decision on the strategic diversification now becomes a good one in less than 2 months.
All this without doubt was due to the recovery of share price with certain optimism on the Covid-19 situation regarding of development in the vaccination. As of now, the battle might have been won after the strategic diversification but this is not something to cheer on yet as the war has yet to be won. You can win the battle but still lose the war.
Before the strategic diversification, SIA share price was trading about $0.60 higher than SATS and now as of 20th Nov 2020, SIA share price was lagging behind SATS by $0.08. At that point, it was still a possibility that SATS could recover faster than SIA resulting in its share price being higher but now that possibility has became a reality. This is what 孙子兵法第八篇 -- 九变篇 is about. When facing unfavorable conditions, one has to choose a strategy to turn the unfavorable to a favorable one. The business of SATS plays a key role in deciding the strategy. Not to mention, of the 13 principles in 孙子兵法，this 九变篇 belongs to those easy to understand the principle but not easy to implement.
Now with the possibility of SATS share price can be higher than SIA becomes a fact, this has further opened up few more options or strategies for this investment going forward. Just for the record, from the time I've invested in SIA in 2009 till now, this is only the first time SATS share price is trading above SIA !!!
Conventional investors based on fundamental would probably inject more capital to buy on dip in Sep 2020. Conventional traders would not even buy in Sep 2020 when SIA or SATS was like a sinking ship. This is what strategy about, defying the belief and way of doing thing of convention traders or fundamental investors, without injecting a single cent of capital and yet can enjoy the recovery later on.
Remember, battle might be won now but the war is yet to over so will continue to monitor for opportunities and carry out appropriate strategies.
