Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (80)
STI-N
FTSE STI closed 2,821.70 on 11th Dec 2020 since the rebound from a low of 2,420.84 on 30th Oct 2020. Despite that 16.56% rebound, STI still entrap in Primary wave 4 after completing Primary wave 3 at 2,208.42 on 23rd Mar 2020 and it could still be in Primary wave 4 when year 2020 ends.
From the chart above, STI still in Intermediate wave ((c)) of the Primary wave 4. The dip after hitting 2,920.55 on 25th Nov 2020 is the Minor wave (b) of the Intermediate wave ((c)). How long more to go for that ? Well from the pattern perspective, a zigzag structure doesn't look like completed. From time frame perspective, Minor wave (b) is currently into its 12th day. Compared to the Intermediate wave ((a)) in which that Minor wave (b) took 27 days to complete, it does look like STI probably need another 1.5 to 2 weeks to complete it. With that trajectory, STI could be completing Primary wave 4 either in January or February 2021. Thereafter if going by the average duration for Primary wave 1, 2, 3 and 4, probably another 6 months more to finally see the bottom of the SuperCycle wave ((2)) correction which started in 2015. Just need the patience to wait !
Covid-19
Singapore has decided to go into phase 3 of the reopening if the take-up rate of the TraceTogether (apps and/or token) is at least 70%. This is a very very poor decision and judgement to link it to a tracing device as the deciding factor. Countries above the Equator line are having winter season now and this is also the period known as flu season. Spark in infected cases in these countries surfaced and some even talking about locking down again. This could due to people immunity go down due to flu and make it easier for Covid-19 virus to attack. Covid-19 first reported last December and "officially" started in January this year, during the winter (flu) season. Remember Covid-19 virus and its trajectory is not something we can see with our naked eyes, things could be happening without our notice. The most worrying fact now is will Covid-19 virus mutates with the common flu virus to another form ? The current vaccines we have from the various manufacturers do not cater for the mutated form since they don't even have that data to research and develop on.
Singapore being a tropical nation, just sit along the Equator line does not have 4 seasons so we are not having winter season like those countries. This could be the factor that explains Singapore still reporting a fairly low infected cases. However, should Covid-19 mutated into another form, Singapore will not be spared especially if it has entered into phase 3. There is a lot of complacency going around from the very top down to the bottom due to the low reported cases daily and it is this complacency going to kill us again. The better and correct decision and judgement to enter phase 3 should be to wait for the winter (flu) season (till February 2021) to be over to ensure Covid-19 will not mutate into another form and at the same time ensure the effectiveness of the current vaccinations instead of linking to the TraceTogether. Complacency Kills !!!
Tiger Brokers Singapore Invitation Code
Singapore Covid-19
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右象理人理出祸
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右马讲据终慢拍
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城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫
