STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (83)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (82)

STI-N

STI closed 2933.19 on 8th Jan 2021, breaking the 2955.68 level suggesting the 5 waves down since 2018 is a diagonal wave.

There is some question on Minor wave (b) which could decide how Minor wave (c) of Intermediate wave ((c)) will perform going forward.  

Scenario 1 is the low of 2308.97 on 22th Dec 2020 is the end of Minor wave (b) of Intermediate wave ((c)).  Technically it should move lower than Minute wave a which is 2793.22 but it is not an invalid pattern should it not.  As such, the peak of 30th Dec 2020 and trough of 5th Jan 2021 could be the Minute wave a and b of the Minor wave (c).  If such count is true, upside of Minor wave (c) could be limited.  In this case Minor wave (b) took 19 days to complete and Minor wave (c) is into its 11th day.  Looking at the consistency of the duration, Minor degree on the average lasts about 2 to 3 weeks (14 to 21 days).

Scenario 2 is the whereby Minor wave (b) did a triangle pattern as indicated by the blue label from the chart above.  The low of 2832.04 on 5th Jan 2021 is the apex e of the triangle or the final end point of the Minor (b).  For this case, Minor wave (c) still have at least a zigzag pattern in the Minute degree to complete meaning there could be a pull back next week to form the zigzag before continue upward.  The upside for this case will be bind by the rule that Primary wave 4 cannot exceed Primary wave 2 -- 3,415.18.  In this case, Minor wave (b) lasted for 27 days (same as Minor (b) of Intermediate ((a)) which is also doing a triangle pattern).  Hence, Minor wave (c) is into its 3rd day only.  With an average duration of 2 to 3 weeks (14 to 21 days) for Minor wave (c), there is definitely still more upside to come.

The subsequent pull back will determine whether Scenario 1 or 2 is the valid wave count.  Regardless of which scenario, the previous analysis that Primary wave 4 should be ending in January or February is still intact

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