Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (81)
STI-N
FTSE STI closed at 2,843.81 for 2020 vs 3,222.83 on 31st Dec 2019, a drop of 379.02 points or -11.76% for the year 2020 which Covid-19 was the main cause.
STI pretty much still stagnant at the Primary wave 4 of Cycle wave (C) phase. To be exact, it is at the Intermediate wave ((c)), Minor wave (b). STI could be completing the Minor wave (b) in the coming 1 or 2 week before staging the final rebound Minor wave (c) for the Intermediate wave ((c)). The timelines for Intermediate wave ((c)) as shown above is pretty much consistent with Intermediate wave ((a)) -- [18 days - 27 days - 8 days]. For the case of Intermediate wave ((c)), it is now at [18 days - 25 days]. Even at Intermediate degree, the same trend could be observed -- [53 days -- 100 days -- ongoing 43 days].
As mentioned in previous analysis, STI could be completing Primary wave 4 either in January or February 2021 and looking at how STI developed so far, that stance still valid.
In the previous analysis dated 12th Dec 2020 on Covid-19, it was mentioned "The most worrying fact now is will Covid-19 virus mutates" and as of now, the answer is positive due to 2 strains (1 from UK and the other from South Africa) being detected. While there is still unknown on the South Africa strain, the UK strain is said to be 40% to 70% more transmissible resulting in rapid spreading. Even Singapore is not spared with the UK strain and for the past few days, daily imported cases was on the rise, local community cases too. the 12th Dec 2020 writing was just days before the Government announcement of phase 3 on 28th Dec 2020 and this is the message then :-
"The better and correct decision and judgement to enter phase 3 should be to wait for the winter (flu) season (till February 2021) to be over to ensure Covid-19 will not mutate into another form and at the same time ensure the effectiveness of the current vaccinations instead of linking to the TraceTogether. Complacency Kills !!!"
Most analysts are quite upbeat on 2021 and believe Covid-19 should not cause another market crash since we have couple of vaccine available. This is like another deja vu in September 2019 when my analysis started to turn bearish while most still upbeat on 2020. According to the Elliott Wave count, STI should have 1 more drop to complete the SuperCycle wave ((2)) correction which was started in 2015. It can be Covid-19 or another event that cause the crash as when it is time for the wave count to move to another phase, an event will pop up to trigger the transmission.
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