FTSE STI ended 2020 at 2,843.81 compared with 3,222.83 a year ago, representing a drop of 379.02 points or 11.76%. This is the year known as Covid-19 which even worse than 2003 SARS despite the fatality rate being lower. Covid-19 first struck the world in January but technically should be December 2019 when it was first reported in China. However, then not much people took it seriously. That is why the coronavirus is officially named as Covid-19. For the whole of 2020, the world is "conquered" by Covid-19. After battling for almost half the year, it looked like stabilized and under-control but it came back "strongly" with mutation in December 2020. While vaccination finally available but can these vaccinations be the answered to the mutated strain (not 1 but 2 found so far) still an unknown.
The following summarized my Investment Portfolio performance for 2020 vs 2019
| 2020 | 2019 | Variant | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Strategic Unrealized Gain/Loss | +31.80% | +46.74% | -45.58% |
| Strategic Unrealized Gain/Loss | +1.71% | 0% | N/A |
| Portfolio Unrealized Gain/Loss | +17.99% | +31.37% | -42.66% |
| Realized Gain/Loss | +22.31% | +29.08% | -23.30% |
| Dividend Return | +66.31% | +62.60% | +5.92% |
| Cash Holding | +46.32% | +32.89% | +40.85% |
| Portfolio | +106.60% | +123.05% | -8.42% |
| STI | 2843.81 | 3222.83 | -11.76% |
| Annualized (w/o dividend) | Annualized (with dividend) | |
|---|---|---|
| Genting SP | +3.38% | +4.93% |
| First Reit | -3.25% (divested) | +5.62% (divested) |
| CapitaMall Trust | +5.73% | +10.05% |
| SIA | -3.25% | -0.29% |
| SingPost | -3.01% | +1.75% |
| Kep Corp | -3.21% | +0.09% |
| MapletreeInd Trust | +13.46% | +16.19% |
| Kep DC Reit | +18.85% | +21.04% |
| Frasers Cpt Trust | +9.65% | +13.46% |
| SIA MCBz300608 | N/A | N/A |
| STI ETF | N/A | N/A |
There should be no surprised if not all most of the performance are in the red given how Covid-19 has a serious impact on not just Singapore but global economy. Singapore even has to enter a lockdown from April to June 2020. Some key points for the 2020 portfolio performance :-
1. Non-Strategic suffered an unrealized dip of 45.58% as majority of the stocks suffered the drop with the exception of MapletreeInd Trust and Kep DC Reit in which both closing price at the end of the year were higher than a year before. However, those 2 can't prevent the overall drop in portfolio performance. Unrealized gain for 2019 included First Reit but not 2020.
2. The Strategic portion is N/A as previous batch was divested in 2019 and 2020 was the new batch.
3. First Reit was divested in Dec 2020 (refer here) with a capital and dividend return of -34.91% and +138.36% respectively. Together with the partial divestment of the same stock back in 2013, the overall investment net a capital and dividend return of +8.45% and +110.57% respectively. The -34.91% capital return was the main cause of the dip in realized gain of 6.77% despite overall investment on the stock netted positive return.
4. Cash holding due to the divestment of First Reit after offsetting capital used for SIA rights issues (both the normal share and MCB) and addition of STI ETF increased by 40.85%.
5. Dividend return continued to rise but at a slower pace despite all stocks suffered cut in dividend payout due to Covid-19 crisis. That the only bright spot for the portfolio in 2020.
6. Strategic section was rebuild with CapitaR China Trust and Lendlease Reit compared to 5 stocks in the previous batch. Might consider adding some more. Strategic section also added STI ETF
7. Some strategic action was taken for the Non-strategic section. SIA after taking up the rights issue (normal and MCB) was strategically diversify to SIA-SATS (for the normal stock) and locked into a dividend given stock for the MCB. Frasers Cpt Trust also did a rights issue but didn't take up the offer. Instead, so far managed to claim 50% of the entitled rights through some strategic action at $0 cost.
8. Overall portfolio performance saw a dip of 8.42% as compared to a dip of 11.76% for STI.
The following summarized the Stock Incubator portfolio performance for 2020 vs 2019.
| 2020 | 2019 | Variant | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unrealized Gain/Loss | +28.74% | +40.93% | -29.77% |
| Realized Gain/Loss | +32.29% | +32.29% | +0.00% |
| Dividend Return | +16.05% | +14.22% | +12.89% |
| Cash Holding | +61.98% | +58.93% | +5.18% |
| Portfolio | +77.09% | +87.44% | -11.84% |
| STI | 2843.81 | 3222.83 | -11.76% |
Key points for 2020 performance :-
1. Stock Incubator Portfolio unrealized gain saw a dip of 29.77%.
2. Dividend return saw a +12.89% increment for the year.
3. Nordic holding was increased by 1.84% at $0 cost lowering holding price from $0.1018/share to $0.1000/share. Valuetronics holding was increased by 25% at $0 cost while Creative holding price was reduced from $4.0804/share to $3.5718/share strategically. These are the strategic actions taken that caused the overall portfolio performance to be better than STI and Investment Portfolio.
4. Overall portfolio performance saw a dip of 11.84% as compared to a dip of 11.76% for STI
Overall, 2020 is never a good year for stock performance in STI with the backdrop of Covid-19 crisis. However, as one always said whenever there is crisis, there will be opportunity. So for 2021, it is the opportunities that will be looking forward to.
Looking ahead 2021, the Strategic section of the Investment Portfolio will continue to increase its holding and hopefully able to maintain $0 capital cost. For the Non-Strategic section of the Investment Portfolio, apart from adding more STI ETF when opportunities rise, have no intention at the moment to add more stocks. For existing holdings, will take up some strategic actions either to reduce the holding price or increase holding at $0 cost. The Incubator Stock Portfolio will continue to monitor for opportunity to increase holding at $0 cost (for Nordic and Valuetronics) and reduce holding price of Creative.
While most believe 2021 will be a better year than 2020. There might be true to it if you just look at the end of the year value but according to my Elliott Wave analysis, there should be one more deadly last leg down.
