Saturday, February 6, 2021

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (85)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (84)

STI-N


By now, it is very unconvincingly to believe the current pull back is still part of Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave 4 as if the pull back is Minute wave of the Minor (b) of Intermediate ((c)), the duration is too long to justify that.  Afraid to say, Primary wave 4 has ended at 3,017.15 on 21st Jan 2021.  Now STI is in the Primary wave 5 of the Cycle wave (C) of SuperCycle wave ((2)).  Yes, the final down part of the SuperCycle correction BUT wait, things will not be that simple for this Primary wave 5.  One thing for sure, it will not plunge all the way in a straight line.

Primary wave 5 can be of a zigzag pattern or a 5-wave down of Intermediate degree pattern or even a more complicated double-three combination pattern.  To add to that, the time frame for that to finish will be months.  As shown in the above chart, 

P1 = 125 days
P2 = 125 days
P3 = 225 days
P4 = 210 days

P5 will be at least 100 days long, probably in the region of 100 to 200 days long depending on how serious the event that causes it.  This will translate to about at least or around 6 months away.  Thus, one really have the patience to wait.

At this moment, P5 appears to be biased toward a 5-wave (diagonal or impulse) pattern and the current pull back is the Intermediate wave ((i)) which might not have completed.  The rebound from 2,873.33 on 1st Feb 2021 looks like the typical zigzag pattern of the Intermediate wave ((i)).  Zigzag on a corrective 5-wave is allowed and that could indicate in the future the 5-wave P5 could be a diagonal wave -- Intermediate wave ((iv)) overlaps Intermediate wave ((i)).  

Why not a simple zigzag for P5 ?  Firstly, with  a time frame of at least or about 6 months, a simple zigzag would see the present pull back a relatively sharp drop instead.  Duration of at least 6 months is more than enough to accommodate or a better fit for a 5-wave down.  Moreover, present sentiment by majority is any pull back is an opportunity to buy and the global markets out of sync (US markets doing record breaking session while rest of the world still in limbo) couldn't justify it is a simple zigzag pattern.  The sharp drop should appear in Intermediate wave ((iii)) and an unexpected event will just appear to trigger that.



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