Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (87)
From previous analysis after re-looking at the whole picture from 1980, there are several possibilities in the wave count going forward. One of them is the positive wave count in which the present upward movement is counted as the new uptrend while the rest still suggesting STI has yet to complete the SuperCycle correction. This installment of the analysis shall document the positive case in more detail.
STI -- ((3)) or ((5))
The above is the shows the detail wave count in SuperCycle, Cycle and Primary degree of the STI -- ((3)) or ((5)) scenario. The peak in 2007 in Cycle ((5)) of either SuperCycle ((1)) or ((3)). The correction due to the 2008 AFC was SuperCycle ((2)) or ((4)) which was concluded in March 2020. From March 2020 onward, STI is either in SuperCycle ((3)) or ((5)).
The above chart details the Intermediate degree wave count of the Supercycle ((3)) or ((5)) which supposed to start in March 2020. Intermediate degree was used instead of Primary mainly due to the time frame duration of each of the wave. Wave ((i)) ended at 2,839.39 on 9th Jun 2020 and wave ((ii)) at 2,420.84 on 30th Oct 2020. This suggests STI is now in wave ((iii)), to be exact, wave ((iii)) of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave (1) of SuperCycle ((3)) or ((5)).
Above is generated from the Degree Calculator of the EW Calculator. As seen, wave ((iii)) must be at least to be able to hit 3,441.749 so that wave 3 is at least 1.618x of wave 1, a pretty common relationship between wave 1 and wave 3 of the EW principle. Anything falling short of that number will raise doubts of the validity of the wave count.
However, there are also several doubts in this wave count which cause concern about its validity.
Above is generated by the Correction Calculator of the EW Calculator. This represents the A-B-C relationship of the SuperCycle ((2)) or ((4)) correction which started in Oct 2007 and ended in Mar 2020. The wave C is only 58.5% of wave A, falling short of the minimum guideline of 61.8%. While guideline is not a rule so failure in meeting it doesn't invalidate the wave count but does raise concern going about the validity.
Another doubts is shown in the chart above questioning the zigzag shape observed in wave ((i)) and ((iii)) of the current upward movement. In EW principle, in an uptrend movement (not the anti-correction uptrend), only in a leading diagonal (appears in wave 1) or an ending diagonal (appears in wave 5) that a zigzag shape can appear. While present STI is doing Primary wave 1 so a leading diagonal in Intermediate degree is possible BUT some of the characteristic of the leading diagonal must be able to be observed -- wave 4 overlap wave 1 in the leading diagonal and the whole structure of the leading diagonal pattern is of a wedge shape.
Doubts is not rule that invalidate the wave count but this could be early warning sign of an invalid wave count. Thus, the several doubts that could be found in this wave count are not something to be ignored totally
The present upward movement might get people excited about suggesting a new uptrend and the worst is over but as long as there are doubts, this could be eventually be an invalid wave count going forward. At this moment, there isn't any rules violation so this wave count can be still considered valid.
Next analysis shall cover the case whereby STI still in SuperCycle correction in detail as that hasn't been invalidated yet by rules.
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