Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (88)
As mentioned in previous analysis, this edition will focus on the negative EW count of STI
STI -- ((C)) or ((2)) or ((4))
The above is the detail wave count in SuperCycle, Cycle and Primary degree of STI -- ((C)) or ((2)) or ((4)) scenario. As the name suggested, the present is still the SuperCycle correction which started in 2007 and gone through couple of "crisis" events like 2008 GFC, 2011 Japan tsunami, Euro crisis, China stock market crash in 2015, 2018 US-China trade war and the recent Covid-19. All these pointing to STI still have one more downside to complete the correction. This final downside is due to the 5-wave down nature of the correction pattern. The differentiating between them each of the peak and trough throughout for the ((C)) case is SuperCycle degree (denoted by ((W))-((X))-((Y)), double-three combination) and for the ((2)) or ((4)) case is Cycle degree (denoted by (A)-(B)-(C) ).
The above chart details down to the Minor degree of STI from 2018 till present. However, for reason of doubts over another, the wave count only focus on the correction is SuperCycle ((W))-((X))-((Y)) meaning the peak in 2007 is SuperCycle wave ((5)) and the post-correction going forward is SuperCycle ((1)).
What STI is in now is the Primary wave 4 of the 5-wave diagonal of the Cycle (C) of SuperCycle ((Y)). This wave count will become invalidated if the present upward movement hit past peak of Primary wave 2 due to rule violation. This is the part getting interesting and worth documenting for further archive use.
The interesting part is the Primary wave 2. There could be 2 interpretations of Primary wave 2. One is ending at 3,145.18 on 3rd May 2019 while the other is it ended at 3,283.89 on 17th Jan 2020. Would bias toward the latter case for the following reasons :-
1. If ended on 3rd May 2019, the duration is relatively short to be considered as Primary degree
2. If ended on 3rd May 2019, the zigzag pattern from then till end of Primary wave 3 is out of the guideline relating to wave C to wave A ratio, wave C is more than 300% of wave A when the guideline states that maximum is 161.8%.
3. If ended on 3rd May 2019, Primary wave 2 is just like a straight zigzag but now Primary wave 4 also another zigzag pattern. Traditionally, wave 2 and wave 4 alternate in depth and shape, that is one is deep and simple pattern while the other is shallow and complex pattern. The case of Primary wave 2 ended on 17th Jan 2020 suit well into Primary wave 2 having a complex pattern while Primary wave 4 having a simple zigzag.
Another interesting point is, which is the correct peak of Primary wave 2 ? 3,415.18 or 3,283.89. The former is the highest point of the whole Primary wave 2 structure while the latter is the end point of the structure. Unfortunately, can't find any answer be it on textbook or internet as most of the time the ending point of the structure is always the lowest (or highest). Whichever the number is, will have different impact going forward -- STI will have more room to move up before rule violation of Primary wave 4 exceed Primary wave 2 kicks in for the 3,415.18 case. Suppose, the answer will only be known after all have completed especially if STI manages to hit past 3,283.89 but fall short of 3,415.18 to complete the SuperCycle correction. This is where it is worth documenting as a valuable archive.
Another point to note is the zigzag shape of Primary wave 4. As noted in the above chart, STI at present level of 3,148.98 has already hit past the wave C = 100% wave A guideline, a distance away from the wave C = 123.6% guideline which sits at 3,200.719. That is to say, STI is qualified anytime to end Primary wave 4 for this wave count.
To summarize for this wave count, STI cannot exceed 3,283.89 (or 3,145.18) to trigger a rule violation to invalidate the wave count.
As a final conclusion of the positive and negative wave count (from previous and this analysis). The positive scenario indicating STI has completed the SuperCycle correction needs the present upward movement to hit at least 3,441.749 before any meaningful correction kicks in. The negative scenario indicating STI still in SuperCycle correction needs the present upward movement not exceeding 3,283.89 (or 3,415.18).
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