Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (90)
This edition of the analysis will focus on the negative scenario of the STI elliott wave count, STI -- ((Y)) or ((2)) or ((4)).
STI -- ((Y)) or ((2)) or ((4))
Before analyzing, there is a missing possible outcome in this scenario which was left out in the past analysis (STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (89) ) and this is denoted by the green label wave count as shown in the chart above. This is actually not a new wave count but is the same as the STI 2007 is SuperCycle ((5)) wave count in STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (87). That scenario was used in counting for the positive scenario whereby the SuperCycle ((A))-((B))-((C)) ended in March 2020. However, if one examine carefully, that wave count could also lead to the negative scenario as shown above.
STI 2007 peak was the SuperCycle ((5)), the trough of 2009 was the SuperCycle correction ((A)) and the peak in 2018 was the SuperCycle correction ((B)). the SuperCycle wave ((B)) did a Cycle degree triangle pattern (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) as shown in the above chart. From 2018 onward is the turning point to differentiate between the positive and negative scenario. The March 2020 low was the Primary wave A of the Cycle wave (A) for the negative scenario meaning meaning low and high in late 2018 to early 2020 was the Primary wave B of the Cycle wave (A). The plunge thereafter is none other than the Primary wave C of Cycle wave (A). The rebound since March 2020 which is still ongoing is the Cycle wave (B) of the SuperCycle wave ((C)). After completing that STI shall see another and final correction in Cycle wave (C) of the SuperCycle ((C)).
This wave count has its plus and minus point. The minus point is the zigzag shape of Cycle (A), the Primary wave C ratio to Primary wave A ratio is actually more than the maximum guideline of 161.8%, was in the 170%+ region. Though it is not a rule violation but something not within the guideline. Thus, this creates a doubt. Now, the plus point of this wave count is the time duration of each of the wave count. Cycle (A) took 2 years (2018 to 2020) in which the Primary A-B-C each took couple of months to complete which all fall within the time frame guideline for EW degree. The present rebound which is the Cycle wave (B) is already more than 1 year (March 2020 till now) and that fit into the criteria that Cycle degree time frame is from 1 to several years. The time frame duration is very consistent so far making this wave count look a higher probability going forward. However, this wave count also brings a big concern going forward. If everything following to the time frame duration guideline, Cycle wave (C) could end either in 2022 to 2024 before finally seeing the end of SuperCycle wave ((C)). Another point point for this case is there is an even more relax restriction as to present upward movement can go without any rule violation.
Now for the existing wave count which pointing to present upward movement is the Primary wave 4 of the Cycle wave (C). The condition for this wave count to be invalidated is STI cannot exceed 3,283.89 or 3,415.18. STI has hit a high of 3.204.24 before closing 3,181.68 on 1st Apr 2021. Despite that, its still have not resulted in any rule violation thereby making this wave count still valid.
To summarize for this negative scenario of STI. There is still a final correction or downward movement before everything come to an end. One of the possible wave count has a rule violation condition in which STI cannot exceed 3,283.89 or 3,415.18 for present upward movement. The other possible wave count though does not have such a rule restriction but could lead to 2022 to 2024 to finally see the SuperCycle correction ends.
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