Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (93)
STI -- ((Y)) or ((2)) or ((4)) (Negative Scenario)
Should 3,237.23 on 30th Aor 2021 be the end of Primary wave 4 or Cycle wave (B), STI now is into Primary wave 5 or Cycle wave (C) for the Negative Scenario. Given the time frame to complete each of the Primary wave or Cycle wave is in term of months and years, this is just the very early phase of the wave. While it is still too early to determine what pattern Primary wave 5 or Cycle wave (C) going to be, due to the pattern structure of EW, the possibilities can be narrowed down.
Primary wave 5
The very basic pattern, zigzag in the Intermediate degree -- ((a)), ((b)), ((c)). This should be very visible especially the Intermediate wave ((b)) due to the time frame it needed to complete. Primary wave 1 to Primary wave 4 each took at least 6 months to complete so it should not be any exception.
To move it down another sub-level, Minor degree, Intermediate wave ((a)) could either be a simple zigzag or a 5-wave impulse/diagonal. On a weekly chart, the structure of the Minor wave might not be easily visible but on a daily chart it should not be a problem to spot it.
Intermediate wave ((b)) could take any 3 pattern (triangle, zigzag, flat, double combination), giving a lot of whipsaw in the daily chart.
Intermediate wave ((c)) should be similar to Intermediate wave ((a)).
Cycle wave (C)
This scenario will be a long haul as it will take at least 1 year to complete. Given the Cycle wave (A) is from 2018 to 2020 and Cycle wave (B) is from 2020 to 2021, Cycle wave (C) could finish in between 2022 to 2023. As this Cycle degree, the sub-level, Primary and Intermediate level will be very visible on a weekly chart.
If the whole of SuperCycle wave ((C)) (from 2018 onward with SuperCycle ((A)) from 2007 to 2009 and SuperCycle ((B)) from 2009 to 2018) is a simple zigzag, the Cycle wave (C) should be a zigzag as well with the possibility of Primary A and C doing either a 5-wave impulse/diagonal or zigzag while Primary B takes in any 3 shape (zigzag, triangle, flat, double combination).
There are also other complex possibilities but it is too early to spell out. Will adjust according as progress along.
STI -- ((3)) or ((5)) (Positive Scenario)
This is for the die-hard who believe present pull back still belong to the new uptrend which was bottom in March 2020.
The above is the weekly chart for this Positive Scenario. The present pull back is seen as the Intermediate wave ((iv)) of the Primary wave 1. There is some points need to take note in this wave count. Intermediate ((iii)) is too short, less than 1.618x of Intermediate wave ((i)) as it should be at least 3,441.749. Next, Intermediate wave ((i)) took 3 months, Intermediate wave ((ii)) took about 4 months and Intermediate wave ((iii)) took about 6 months. You can expect Intermediate wave ((iv)) to be of couple of months time frame. The rebound from 3,023.95 definitely is not the end of Intermediate wave ((iv)). As there could be more downside for Intermediate wave ((iv)) since it is yet to run its full course, it cannot overlap with Intermediate wave ((i)) at 2,839.39 else it will result in rule violation thus invalidate the whole wave count.
The above is the daily chart for the Positive Scenario in which it considers Primary wave 3 doing an extended wave. As such, the Intermediate and Minor degree of this Primary wave 3 is labeled to account for each of the turns in the wave. The present pull back now is the Minor wave (iv) of the Intermediate wave ((iii)) of Primary wave 3. However, looking at the red label of the Minor wave (iv), the shape is clearly an Expanded Flat (3-3-5), there is a conflict in term of degree. The red label (a)-(b)-(c) is the Minor degree of the correction and the end product should be Intermediate wave ((iv)) and not Minor wave (iv). Thus, this wave count is incorrect.
This perhaps is the warning signal that the Positive Scenario is not going to be the correct wave count despite the weekly chart still show a possibility.
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