Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (92)
STI -- ((Y)) or ((2)) or ((4)) (Negative Scenario)
There isn't much changes to the negative scenario. The movement of STI for the past 2 weeks didn't invalidate this wave count. The selling down for the past 1 week did look like the peak of Primary wave 4 or Cycle wave (B) has completed. This can only be confirmed when sequence pulling back in the next 2 weeks.
STI -- ((3)) or ((5)) (Positive Scenario)
The weekly chart for the positive scenario also didn't make much progress as in the negative scenario as it neither invalidate the wave count or strengthen this possibility. However, if looking at the daily chart, is a very different story.
Have came across this wave count for the positive scenario. The difference is the labeling of EW degree. Instead of the Intermediate degree, it has moved up to Primary degree. This is to account for the Intermediate and Minor degree observed since the rebound off 2,240.84 on 30th Oct 2020. STI 2,420.84 is the Primary wave 2 and STI is now in Primary wave 3. Within the Primary wave 3, there is the wave count of sub-level (Intermediate and Minor degree). Normally, when sub-level can be observed meaning the higher degree wave is an extended wave. With this, the followings are observed :-
STI 2,920.55 -- Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave ((i))
STI 2,803.97 -- Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave ((ii))
STI 3,017.15 -- Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave ((iii)), Minor wave (i)
STI 2,869.30 -- Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave ((iii)), Minor wave (ii)
STI 3,221.85 -- Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave ((iii)), Minor wave (iii)
As such STI is now in Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave ((iii)), Minor wave (iv). On the surface it does look legit but closely examined found various doubts which making this wave count is it really valid.
Doubt 1
The time duration for the Intermediate degree is almost the same as the Minor degree in the Primary wave 3 portion.
The above is generated by the Fibonacci Calculator. The left hand side is for the Intermediate degree calculation of the Primary wave 3. The right hand side is the Minor degree calculation of the Intermediate wave ((iii)) doing a bottom up calculation.
Doubt 2
The Fibonacci retracement of Intermediate wave ((ii)) of Primary wave 3 as shown in the chart is only 23.3% in which only 12% of the time happens.
Doubt 3
The top-down calculation for Intermediate wave ((iii)) is 3,612.501 as shown above. However, if doing a bottom-up approach, this value only can reach 3,262.232 as shown above. This 2 values contradict each other meaning there isn't any convergence among them. EW is a hierarchy based technical analysis, you can't have divergence between top-down and bottom-up analysis.
Doubt 4
This wave count is for Primary wave 3, the strongest among the 5 waves in EW. If the sub-level of Primary wave 3 can be observed, it is considered an extended wave meaning Primary wave 3 can easily hit pass 161.8% of wave 1. The sub-level so far observed in STI doesn't look like it could achieve that.
The positive scenario already exists several doubts and now more doubts added. This only reduces the probability of this wave count being the correct one.
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