STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (96)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (95)

STI -- ((3)) or ((5)) (Postive Scenario)

STI has been relatively resistance and range bound since the last update in Jun 2021 moving within a 100 points range.  Most would claim it is consolidating for a breakout.  The breakout if it happens would be the positive scenario wave count.  Hiowever, there are several doubts in this EW wave count that makes it questionable.  Though there isn't any rule violations so can't invalidate this wave count yet.

The list of doubts are as followed and also noted in the above chart :-

1. Cycle wave (C) is only 58% of Cycle wave (A), short of the minimum guideline of 61.8% when normally it would be 100% when STI hit 2,208.42 in March 2020.

2. In the Intermediate wave ((i)), there was a zigzag pattern observed which should not be observed in an impulse wave of motive waves.

3. In the Intermediate wave ((iii)), again there was a zigzag pattern observed which should not be observed in an impulse wave of motive waves.

4. Intermediate wave ((iii)) which ended at 3,237.27 is only 129.4% of wave ((i)), a very uncharacteristic ratio for wave ((iii)) which as a norm it will usually be at least 161.8% or 261.8% for an extended wave.

5. Intermediate wave ((i)) took 11 weeks, Intermediate wave ((ii)) 20 weeks and Intermediate wave ((iii)) 26 weeks.  Wave ((iv)), the present stage is at 13th week.  Should a breakout occur next week meaning Intermediate wave ((iv)) has completed probably at the 9th week is too short a duration.  Normally, wave 2 and wave 4 will alternate with other other in both the vertical and horiztonal domain.  In this case, Intermediate wave ((ii)) is the typical steep correction meaning Intermediate wave ((iv)) shall be the complex and shallow long stretching pattern.  This would suggest Intermediate wave ((iv)) shall take more than 20 weeks to complete.

The above are the 5 prominant doubts for this scenario.  These doubts would be early signals to invalidate this wave count.

STI -- ((Y)) or ((2)) or ((4)) (Negative Scenario)

For this scenario there isn't any significant change to invalidate it and still remain a higher probability than the above postive scenario

For this Negative Scenario, there is actually 2 possible wave count.  First being the SuperCycle correction since 2007 is an Expanded Flat structure and present STI is in the Primary wave 5 of the SuperCycle wave ((C)).  Second being the SuperCycle correction since 2007 is the typical A-B-C zigzag pattern and present is in the Cycle wave (C) of the SuperCycle wave ((C)).  The major different between the 2 is the duration to end the SuperCycle correction.  The Expanded Flat case would probably see the correction ending by end of 2021 while the later would see it ending between 2022 and 2023.

There is a possibility now that a differentiation as to which case is the correct one.  The continue moving sideway of STI in the next few weeks or months could rule out the Expanded Flat wave count.  This is something need to continue to monitor going forward.

Statistic Monitoring

 As Covid-19 pandemic still ongoing and nobody knows where's the end of it.  Singapore is planning to tread it as an endemic.  Putting aside whether endemic like common flu is possible, the Government decides to stop monitoring the daily infected cases and focus on severity cases that required hospitialization only.  Firstly, is common flu an endemic ?  The common flu virus the world having now one major type of it is the exact same strain the 1918 Spanish Flu -- Influenza A/H1N1.  Does this strain really tame until it becomes endemic ?  The most recent Influenza pandemic was the 2009 Swine Flu which happens to be the same strain as the Influenza A/H1N1.  Now, if really endemic, the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic should not even have happened.  Endemic ?  Possible ? 

Back to the main point, there are strong reasons why people record statistic.  This is to enable discovering a trend before things start to get worse or better.  Just like stock market, if there is no registering and monitoring of daily value, the trend of the market will not be known.  This trend is an early indication of what's going to happen next (market correct or rally).  With this early indication, action could be taken and deployed either to minimize damage (before market correction actually happens) or seize the opportunity to bargain hunt and profit from it (before market rally).

This is the same as monitoring the daily cases when the pandemic is not over.  Daily cases are just like the trend prior to the next big event, in this case severity and hospitalization or even death.  Monitoring the daily cases, spot the trend and we could plan beforehand allocation of medical resources before thing actually happen.  Being infected and hospitalization is not an immediate thing so the daily cases trend is a strong indication of what's going to happen next.  Failing to spot the trend and take action in stock market at worst result in financial loss but in virus or diseases pandemic, a late action will result in life and death.  Ignoring daily cases trend is just allowing one to sit into complacency, waiting for the nextt crisis to come only.

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