Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (96)
Did some re-organization with all the possible EW scenarios and labeling on the higher level -- SuperCycle degree as the previous analysis and labeling was in certain way messy and difficult to remember.
Colored code is being used to differentiate each of the scenario as shown in the chart above with STI dating back to 1995. The underlying still remain the same from existing EW wave count. There are now 4 possible wave counts going forward :-
Magenta = STI Positive scenario in which present is in Primary wave 1
Green = STI Negative scenario in which present is either the Cycle (B) or (C) wave of the SuperCycle ((C)) wave
Red = STI Negative scenarion in which present is either the Primary wave 4 or 5 of the Cycle (C) wave of SuperCycle ((Y)) wave
Orange = STI Negative scenario in which present is either the Primary B or C wave of Cycle (C) wave of SuperCycle wave ((2)) or ((4))
It is actually the same as the exisiting wave count of STI -- ((3)) or (5)) (Postive Scenario) and STI -- ((Y)) or ((2)) or ((4)) (Negative Scenario). The followings are the close up section of each of the 4 scenarios for the past 3 years.
magenta -- STI Postiive
STI is presently in Intermediate wave ((iv)) of Primary wave 1. This is the case in which STI is believed to have completed the correction since 2007 in March 2020 at 2,208.42. This case consists of couple of doubts as mentioned in the above chart making it questionable is this wave count the correct one. Since there isn't any EW rule violations, this wave count cannot be invalidated.
The above chart is for the green, red and orange -- STI Negative scenario. These scenarios suggest the SuperCycle degree correction since 2007 is yet to run its full course.
green -- STI Negative
This case suggests STI is in either Cycle (B) or Cycle (C) preseently of SuperCycle wave ((C)) with 2007 peak as SuperCycle wave ((5)).
If it is still Cycle (B), the present pull back shall be limited before making the final upward movememt to complete Cycle (B).
If it is in Cycle (C), the peak at 3,237.23 in Apr 2021 shall be the Cycle wave (B). STI now is in the early phase of the Cycle (C) and this could extend till 2022 or even 2023 to finally bottom out.
red -- STI Negative
This is for STI now in either Primary wave 4 or Primary wave 5 of the Cycle wave (C) of SuperCycle wave ((Y)). This is the Expanded Flat pattern since the bottom in 2016.
If it is in Primary wave 4, there should be further upward movement after this pull back but STI is not allow to exceed 3,283.89 or 3,415.18 (the peak of Primary wave 2) else there will be a rule violation.
If this is Primary wave 5, any rebound from STI cannot exceed 3,237.23 and this wave should be able to complete either end of the year or Q1 of next year.
If the bottom exceed beyond Q1 2022, the possibility of this wave count will be very low even though no rule violation at all.
orange -- STI Negative
This is the case whereby STI is now either in Primary wave B or Primary wave C of Cycle wave (C) of SuperCycle wave ((2)) or ((4)).
If it is Primary wave B, the present pull back should be of limited downside before resume the upward movement to complete Primary wave B.
If it is Primary wave C, STI 3,237.23 shall be Primary wave B and any rebound now should not exceed that value. Primary wave C is expected to complete either end of the year or Q1 of 2022.
If the bottom exceed beyond Q1 2022, the possibility of this wave count will be very low even though no rule violation at all.
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