Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (97)
STI Overall
The above is the overall wave count for STI consisting both the positive and negative scenario. Nothing much has changed in term of wave count since the last update almost a month ago.
Magenta -- STI Positive
The above is the close up section of the STI Positive scenario. As noted, it is presently in Intermediate wave ((iv)) of Primary wave 1. This Intermediate wave ((iv)) is into its 21st week, time frame very much comparable to Intermediate wave ((ii)) but its still yet to show sign the correction is going to end soon. The alternate characteristic between wave 2 and 4 of Elliott Wave suggesting there is still more time to go before this Intermediate wave ((iv)) is finally done. Even if going down Minor degree, the correction doesn't justify coming to an end soon too.
However, do note that for this STI Positive scenario, doubts already started to surface as early as Apr 2020 about its validity as shown clearly in the above chart. At the moment still can't invalidate as it has not violate any Elliott Wave rules. That is the plus point of Elliott Wave, with comprehensive analysis looking into characteristic of each of the wave, go through thoroughly on all degree levels of the wave count and putting in consideration of the time frame factor for each of the degree level, all the doubts are early warning signals of invalid wave count. Elliott wave is not something that one just count 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C for the sake of counting only.
The above is the close up chart for the STI Negative wave count consisting of 3 scenarios, Green -- STI Negative, Red -- STI Negative and Orange -- STI Negative.
Green -- STI Negative
For this case it is still inconclusive whether STI still in Cycle wave (B) or already into the early state of Cycle wave (C). For Wave (B), the wave count could play out to be a 5-wave in which now is in the 4th wave. For the early Wave (C), STI appears to be still doing a corrective 3-wave pattern in the Minor degree level. This implies the Intermediate wave ((a)) still yet to complete less to say Primary wave A and Cycle wave A.
Red -- STI Negative
For this case, STI is either still doing the Primary wave 4 or in the Primary wave 5 stage. However, this scenario might be the first to be written off should there isn't drastic change in STI in the next month after taking consideration of the time frame factor. If still part of Primary wave 4, the time frame duration should suggest STI to move up next to complete Primary wave 4, breaking the previous high of 3,237.23 on 30th Apr 2021 within the next 1 to 2 weeks time. Should it be the case of Primary wave 5, it shall break the previous low of 3,023.95 on 14th May 2021 within the next 1 to 2 weeks time. The fall should be a sharp one.
Orange -- STI Negative
For this case, STI is either in Primart wave B or wave C. This wave count is quite similar to the Red -- STI Negative wave count in which if there isn't any drastic movement within the next 1 to 2 weeks (breaking previous high or low), could be written off after considerating the time frame duration factor.
What's having now for all the scenarios so far are a Magenta -- STI Postive wave count is just awaiting for rule violation to invalidate given all the doubts being accumulated so far. Both Red -- STI Negative and Orange -- STI Negative are in danger of being written off within the next 1 month should no drastic movement happen from STI due to time frame duration factor. Green -- STI Negative is the only one among all those with the least doubts and have a larger time frame duration factor to accomodate continue directionless STI movmement.
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