Saturday, November 13, 2021

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (99)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (98)

STI Overall

The above is the overall wave count for STI consisting both the positive and negative scenarios.  Since the last update on 25th Sep 2021, it was said STI need a drastic movement in October 2021 as the time frame was ripe for one and now STI did have one, not to the very obvious but sufficient to move onto the next wave count for each of the scenario.

Magenta -- STI Positive

There it was, STI moved up in the month of October extending into the first two weeks of November to provide the drastic movement to maintain the wave count.  As such, the low of 3,037.39 on 22nd Sep 2021 could be labeled as Intermediate wave ((iv)) of Primary wave 1.  With that, this took the Intermediate wave ((iv)) 21 weeks to complete, just 1 week more than Intermediate wave ((ii)).  The upward movement since then is the Intermediate wave ((v)) and it is into its 7th week as of now.  Looking at the time frame factor, Intermediate wave ((v)) is not about to end soon, well at least it should match the duration of Intermediate wave ((i)), 11 weeks.  Then again, it could also exceed that and move into the range of Intermediate wave ((iii)) but not exceeding it.  Here, 2 possibilities going forward for Intermediate wave ((v)).  

First possibility is matching the duration of Intermediate wave ((i)) meaning another 4 more weeks to go to complete Primary wave 1 and heads into the serious Primary wave 2 correction.

Second possibility is between 11 and 26 weeks and it should have a visible Minor degree 5-waves structure in a highly likely leading diagonal structure.  In this case, the Minor wave (i) is likely to have ended at 3,273.54 on 9th Nov 2021 and now it is doing the Minor wave (ii).  About another 20 more weeks to complete 4 Minor wave (2 - 5) is very possible.

Above is derived from the Fibonacci Calculator about the possible Intermediate wave ((v)) ending value.  As calculated, it is 3,550.44.  Now for the first possibility to hit 3,550.44 from 3,228.45 (closing on 12th Nov 2021) with roughly 4 more weeks is rather a tough task.  This means, the second possibility of doing a leading diagonal on Intermediate wave ((v)) with about 20 more weeks duration is very likely.

The above analysis looks very optimistic for STI BUT don't forget for this wave count, there are several doubts along the way which could be serving as an early warning signals that this is not the exact wave count.  This was mentioned in the past and highlighted in the above chart in red.  Remembered that in 2016 to 2018, STI also did a 5-wave upward movement in which most if not all were thinking of bull market but ended up that was just a part of the corrective wave B.  Hence, STI can be doing the same as in 2016 to 2018 now.  Thus, better not to get overly excited about it.

The above is the wave count for the 3 negative scenarios, Green -- STI Negative, Red -- STI Negative and Orange -- STI Negative.  Unfortunately, the upward movement from STI for the past 1 month plus failed to invalidate any of the 3 wave counts, meaning all 3 still valid.

Green -- STI Negative

The upward movement lately only showed that 3,237.23 on 30th Apr 2021 wasn't the Cycle wave (B) of the SuperCycle wave ((C)) correction.  Instead, the Cycle wave (B) is being pushed up to accommodate the 5-wave structure from March 2020.  This wave count has an invalid rule, STI cannot exceed 3,415.87 in its present upward movement.

Red -- STI Negative

This is similar the Green wave count as in 3,237.23 wasn't the Primary wave 4 of the Cycle wave (C) of the SuperCycle wave ((Y)).  It is being pushed up to accommodate the 5-wave structure from March 2020.

Orange -- STI Negative

Like the above 2 wave counts, the Cycle wave B of Cycle wave (C) of SuperCycle wave ((2)) or ((4)) is being pushed up to accommodate for the 5-wave structure.

As a whole, all the Negative scenarios are just being delayed before heading into the last wave of the whole correction.  The recent upward movement has failed to invalidate any of the Negative scenarios.

The Difference And The Decisive

The next few weeks, probably 1 to 2 months should be the decisive one to differentiate whether STI is in the Positive or the Negative scenarios.  In the Positive scenario, it is said that STI looks very likely to be doing a leading diagonal (5-wave diagonal structure) but for the Negative scenarios, a simple A-B-C zigzag would be enough to complete the wave.  That is the one to look out for in the coming 1 to 2 months duration.

The next 1 to 2 month is the end of the year window dressing and Capricorn effect, just fit in nicely for STI to hit the ending point for its present wave count.  Thereafter, if STI is the Positive Scenario, it shall be a Primary wave 2 correction which will not drop below March 2020 low.  However, if STI is the Negative Scenario, it shall be the last wave count of the big correction, something that will break below the March 2020 low.  The downside risk for both Positive and Negative Scenarios is there.

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