After more than half a year the world battling with Delta variant of the Covid-19 and with nations one by one upping the population vaccination rate, the world probably thinking seeing the light of the tunnel already. Unfortunately, just last month, a piece of news created another shock to the world -- a new variant Omicron was discovered in an infected person on 11th November 2021 in Botswana and 14th November in South Africa. WHO on 26th November 2021 named this B.1.1.529 variant as Omicron and classified it as a Variant of Concern. While scientists and researchers still gathering data on this variant in particular how much transmissible and severe relative to the Delta variant, Omicron infected person as of now in general either is asymptomatic or with mild symptoms in a fully vaccinated person. This has led some experts starting to declare this might be the variant that could end the pandemic. Are these experts correct ? If so, why WHO was fast to declare it as Variant of Concern compared to the duration in the past with Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variant.
Presently, the followings are found about the Omicron variant :-
1. Omicron has found to have 50 mutations with 32 in the S gene as compared to between 9 and 13 in the Delta variant. Higher number of mutations does not necessary translates to be more dangerous but rather it is easier to adapt to the human species by generating another variant. However, note that it also doesn't mean it will not mutate into another more deadly variant too.
2. There were higher reports of immunity evasion in the Omicron than Delta, meaning it is better at evading the immunity provided by the vaccine than the Delta variant. In fact, many of those mutations involve the actual spike protein, which is critical part of the virus that allows it to enter the cells of the human body and make them sick.
3. Omicron can reinfect people who previously being infected and survived by the earlier variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Meaning, this is threatening the naturalized immunity of those previously infected.
4. Scientists at University of Hong Kong reported that Omicron variant multiples about 70 times faster inside the human respiratory tract tissue than the Delta variant. This study yet to be peer reviewed as of now.
5. UK health officials estimated that within a household, the risk of spreading Omicron variant to another member is three time higher than the Delta variant.
6. As of now 19th Dec 2021, according to WHO, Omicron has been detected in 89 countries with Covid-19 cases involving this variant doubling every 1.5 to 3 days with community transmission and not just infections acquired abroad.
So, is this Omicron be the one that could end the pandemic ? Whoever that expert suggested afraid have absolutely no data on hand to substantiate given that the world is still collecting data and research on this variant. This is just a hope, a wish that the SARS-CoV-2 virus behaves like the influenza A/H1N1 virus in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that eventually mutates to the common flu virus we are having today. However, in life science nothing is absolute until scientifically proven. SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza A are 2 different classes of virus, they could have similar and common characteristics but don't expect they both behave exactly the same. It is very disappointing and an irresponsible act to see a doctor who have years of experiences in infectious diseases and yet committed such a mistake. That suggestion, that thought, that statement definitely have influenced certain people mindset towards the Omicron variant. No need to look far, just see the daily facebook comment section of the ST page (those usual suspects at the usual place) one can easily find day in day out these people just spamming the thoughts that it is of no serious, "endemic" already no fear, Singapore should even open up more for the economy. These are exactly the Selective Joe which was mentioned in Covid-19, The Long And Winding Road ! -- Part II. These people with their selective mindsets are not going to help end the pandemic but just prolong it.
Since WHO classified as Variant of Concern on 26th November 2021, data from research were coming in biasing towards the negative aspect instead. On top of that, vaccine makers like Pfizer and Moderna were fast into developing specific vaccine for Omicron despite claim that a fully vaccinated people with the mRNA together with booster shot still able to prevent severity and death.
So far majority of the reported Omicron infection were on fully vaccinated and even people with booster shot failed to escape from being infected. The study from Imperial College London dated 17th Dec 2021 revealed that (Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses). UK also reported first death, first confirmed death globally from Omicron on 13th Dec 2021 (refer here). In UK latest study dated 17th Dec 2021, it was found that there is no evidence that Omicron variant is less severe than Delta (refer here).
In US, Cornell University also suffered a massive Omicron outbreak reporting 903 cases among students from 7 to 13 Dec 2021 with majority of the cases in a fully vaccinated individual. In fact, nearly 97% of the students in the university are fully vaccinated. That definitely not a piece of positive news for Omicron variant (refer here).
Other European nations were not spared with Omicron infection too. Holland went from partial lockdown in 28th November 2021 when Omicron was first announced to the world to a full lockdown from 19th Dec 2021 till 14th Jan 2022. In the east side of the globe though Omicron infection is still not as massive as the west, countries are tightening their borders and preparing for the worse.
The reaction of vaccine makers toward Omicron also doesn't provide much positive sentiment. It's almost a hard fact now that the mRNA vaccine which is the highest efficacy among all the vaccines fares worse to the Omicron variant than to the Delta variant. 2 doses protection is almost render to be useless in infection prevention (just look at the Cornell University outbreak). Vaccine makers are pushing for booster shot and even preparing to roll out an Omicron specific vaccine. Pfizer CEO already admitted that 4th Covid vaccine doses may be needed sooner than expected due to Omicron (refer here). Even with booster shot (the 3rd doses), it's still not a guarantee there won't be breakthrough in immunity. The first local person to be infected with Omicron is a staff working at the Changi Airport who is fully vaccinated with booster shot and yet breakthrough occurred. This really raised the concern that was highlighted in the previous post of vaccine becoming a double-edged sword, is it becoming a reality now ?
The vaccine becoming a double-edged sword was first raised in Herd Immunity Through Vaccination ? (dated 5th Jun 2021), way way before Omicron variant and just at the massive global outbreak of the Delta variant. There were already breakthrough cases among the vaccinated with the Delta variant. The rationale of vaccine becomes a double-edged sword is that the vaccine on one hand is able to prevent severity and death but on the other hand increases the platform and raise the probability of further mutation to either a more contagious or deadly variant. While there isn't direct evidence Omicron is indeed mutated from a vaccinated person, there isn't direct evidence to conclude it is not too. One thing is global vaccination rate is definitely higher as of now compared to the time when Delta was first emerged. In fact, there isn't direct evidence Delta wasn't mutated from vaccinated person too. For Alpha, Beta and Gamma, that could rule out as then vaccine wasn't available. However, with the Omicron variant having the ability to evade immunity protection from vaccine, this raise the possibility it is mutated from a vaccinated person. The basic of life science, living things react to changes for survival. The virus could be reacting to the antibodies produced by the vaccine that it manages to mutate into another variant to overcome it. Some might raise the fact that South Africa vaccination is less than 30% thus for that to happen chances are not high. Chances are not high doesn't mean absolutely no chance or not possible !
There will be people going to deny the vaccine is a double-edged sword despite having no concrete scientific evidence to prove it is not as this is against their narrative.
The first group shall be the vaccine makers. For what reason, that is quite obvious and we don't even need to dig into detail about it.
The second group is none other than the government of each of the nations. They are the one pushing strong and hard on vaccination and even rolled out discrimination measures against the unvaccinated. Hardly, we see politicians being outright honest to admit mistake. In fact, the more tyrannical one will just label that as false information or fake news despite not able to prove scientifically it is impossible.
The last group is none other than doctors, experts, specialists and scientists. Unless they have no greed in title, status, financial power and getting recognition with national awards or a true hard fact throws in front of them, they will just toe the line of the politicians and maintain silence. Even with a possibility, they don't even dare to raise an alarm.
Some might hard to apprehend why despite fully vaccinated and booster shot still can be infected. Explaining the scientific way might still unable to understand. Let put it in a more layman perspective. Take the example of police and thief as an analogue to the vaccine and the virus. The thief is the virus. Each of the many disguises the thief put on to prevent being caught is the variants that were mutated. The system to catch the thief is the vaccine. Police is the antibodies that will hunt down the thief. Police can't hunt the thief down without knowing how he looks like and that is the job of the vaccine. The vaccine is responsible to research and find out the look of the thief and his many disguises. With that information, copies of those are handed to the police so that they can hunt him down. Immunity escape and breakthrough cases represent the thief has managed to disguise into a new look that wasn't inside the database of the police resulting in failure to hunt him down. Booster shot is just like increasing the number of police say from 100 to 500 to track the thief down. However, despite the increase in number of police, they still holding the same old database of the thief as before. This is like riding on the fact that now have more police to raise the probability of hunting the thief down but not acquiring another new disguise of the thief. As times go by as long as the thief still remain at large, the number of police tracking him down will reduce over times as they are being redeployed to other crimes. This explains why the effectiveness of the vaccine wanes over times. Unless the technology in the vaccine is advanced enough to the point that it is able to formulate all the possible disguises of the thief else it will never able to totally prevent infection and transmission. We have heard vaccine makers are developing a specific vaccine for Omicron, this is like adding a new disguise information of the thief to the police so that they can be more accurate in hunting him down.
For those who think they are fully vaccinated and with booster shot, infected with Omicron only resulting in mild symptoms might not be a big deal, they forget that they could be the one that the Omicron will mutate into another worse variant.
If you think vaccine as a double-edged sword is bad enough, there is still an even worse news -- double infection. Again, this issue was raised in Herd Immunity Through Vaccination ? dated 5th Jun 2021. Then the question was "what if multiple variants among the 4 (Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta) enter the body?" Those with medical background might say it is rare occurrence. It might be rare but doesn't mean will not happen. In fact in early 2021, there was indeed a Belgian elderly died from double infection (refer here). Now referring to this piece of article, Omicron variant may have picked up a piece of common-cold virus dated 4th Dec 2021. While the finding didn't present any concrete evidence Omicron was mutated from a double infection, this raise the concern of possibility. A rare occurrence in scientific perspective is not impossible. Rare simply means conditions are not all aligned to become a norm.
According to WHO, prior to Omicron, the Delta variant is responsible for 99% of the Covid-19 cases globally. Scientists and experts are taking about Omicron going to replace Delta as the new dominant variant and with the state of Omicron infection globally now, it is just a matter of time when that will happen. To overcome 99% of the infections, there bound to be overlap between the 2 variants. In so, double infection with Delta and Omicron is not something impossible. In fact, Moderna chief vaccine maker officer, Dr Paul Burton already sounded this possibility on 14th Dec 2021 (refer here). The outcome of this double infection might produce another more deadly variant which the vaccine can becomes totally useless in prevent severity and death.
The world is going to vaccinate the children against Covid-19 and with no surprise Singapore Government already gave the green light for those between 5 to 11. Came across a parent being interview regarding children taking the vaccine, said parent mentioned believe in science so intending to let the children get vaccinated. This brings a very interesting insight and no am not going to discuss whether should children get vaccinated or not but another aspect.
Believe in science is one thing, understanding science is another. Should one believe in science but not understand it, science will become a double-edged sword. Understanding science will allow one to know when to step on the brake and when to full throttle ahead so as not to fallen into the double-edged sword scenario. Just believe in science and go full throttle ahead is never a wise thing to do. Now, for that parent who said to believe in science, the natural immune system in our body itself is a science. It is something that scientists still have lot of unknown about. If you believe in science, do you believe in the natural immune system that exists in our body for few thousands years already or the vaccine that is still yet to be fully tested for long term side effects ? Parent should understand science and make the right decision for their children regarding vaccination and not purely based on believing in science or trust in the government.
Nobody in this world can claim to understand science fully as there is still lot of unknown in science to mankind. Similarly, for infectious diseases experts or doctors despite many decades of experiences in virus modeling, infectious diseases treatment and research still cannot be said to fully understand virus. However, that should not be an excuse in not understanding science.
If it said how the world ended up with Omicron and not ended the pandemic earlier is due to failure to understand science as one of the reason should be of no surprise. We already have politicians that demonstrated that. Gave them the data, they interpreted it like an economist instead of scientist when the pandemic itself is a science. A brainy human being with economy degree and MBA from prestige university totally defeated by the brainless virus when trying to make the virus followed the narrative. Doctor, the one who supposed to lead the world out of the pandemic, the one who supposed to understand science more in depth than most people can fail too. Why ?
A doctor turned politician surrendered his rights to understand science
A doctor endorsed vaccination discrimination gave up his rights to understand science
A doctor placed title, status, financial power, awards ahead of everything never understand science
A doctor treating human life as digit and statistics doesn't deserve to understand science
A doctor who doesn't understand science is nothing but a quack doctor
Many are looking to the next mutation to end the pandemic after the Delta variant. They are not wrong but will it be this Omicron variant or the next one ? The general belief is a variant which is less contagious and is this the only way ? On the contrary, the next mutation to a more deadly variant would be a better candidate to really end the pandemic. Why ? As deadly as it is meaning vaccine is totally useless to prevent severity and death. It is then people will start to be more aggressive in testing, quarantine and isolating to break the chain of transmission. In addition, deadly variant means it will kill the host before it could transmit to another which further help to break the chain of transmission.
If vaccine is not a double-edged sword for the Omicron, the next mutation will surely be given that the global vaccination rate will be even higher with children coming in couple with those booster shots.
Added 27th Dec 2021
came across report saying South Africa is giving up contract tracing on Omicron infection as it believed almost the whole population has been infected. To many on the surface this might be implying South Africa is rising the white flag but should anyone observes comments and views from inside South Africa will be a totally different story. Omicron was first discovered in South Africa and spread rapidly to rest of the world with the west side of the globe falling one by one like a domino. However, most forget one fact about South Africa.
South Africa till today is only having about 25% of its population fully vaccinated. Alarmly, it has over 70% of its population being infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants. That is to say, at least 90% of the population has that immunity to the virus inside their body either due to the vaccine or the naturalized one from previous infection. Death and hospitalization rate for South Africa still remain low unlike those in the west of the globe seeing recording breaking cases and threatening the healthcare system. Another interesting fact is South Africans practically not wearing mask, doing social distancing and so forth of those pandemic restriction. In fact, majority of the population also not bothering to get vaccinating despite the push from the government.
Now, look at Israel, the government is pushing for 4th dose despite having like slightly over 90% of the population being vaccinated. Like the west of the globe nations, Israel is getting massive hit by Omicron too. With over 90% of the population fully vaccinated, mask wearing and social distancing restriction still on to cope with Omicron, it is a total contrast to South Africa. Israel, a nation who like many others including Singapore is trying to vaccinate the population out of the pandemic while South Africa is a nation that majority of the population is having the naturalized immunity instead of from the vaccine, are performing totally differently at the moment.
Should South Africa ends the pandemic before any other countries, this will be a tight slap and wake up call to the rest of the world who try to vaccinate the population out of the pandemic. This of course is not a piece of good news for the vaccine makers and even political leaders who all along keep pushing for vaccine mandate. Question is will any scientists, researchers and experts willing to do a thorough investigation into it, South Africa vs Israel and not afraid to publish the truth ? Should that be the truth, any political leaders dare to admit their mistake in pushing restlessly for the vaccine when it does really serve the purpose ? For sure, Singapore political leaders will not admit the mistake as they never have the courage to admit own mistakes, in the past, present and future.
Omicron, the variant to end the pandemic ? Probably not going to happen to those nations who just trying to vaccinate the population out of it.
Singapore Covid-19
主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫
领导者最佳战友
为何小红点缺乏
是否无勇气拥有
是否缺远见拥有
是否不知怎拥有
还是不想去拥有
