Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (100)
STI Overall
STI has been biasing toward the upside since the turn of the year and even displayed resilience despite US markets corrected with Nasdaq already into correction territory. This of course prompted analysts all moving toward the optimistic with even claim of possible STI at 4,000, a level finally broke the high in 2007 prior to the 2008 GFC. However, looking at the overall picture in particular the higher degrees (SuperCycle and Cycle degrees) of Elliott Wave analysis, nothing has changed, nothing has confirmed of the bullishness and the most important, the 3 negative scenarios still very much valid.
Magenta -- STI Positive
In this scenario, it was previously stated a possible "leading diagonal" in the Primary wave 1. As of now, STI is in the Minor wave (iii) of the Intermediate wave ((v)) of Primary wave 1. Above also denoted the time duration of each of the wave phases. Please note, there was a mistake in the above diagram in which Intermediate wave ((v)) is at 17th week instead of 16th. Going by the time duration, Intermediate wave ((v)) already exceeded the duration taken for Intermediate wave ((i)) (not something invalid though) and on course to hit around the 26 weeks taken by Intermediate wave ((iii)), to be exact 9 more weeks. Then looking into the Minor degree duration of the Intermediate wave ((v)), there is still possible Minor (iii), (iv) and (v) to go for the remaining 9 weeks (or less).
There is still another possibility, the low on 30th Nov 2021 was actually the end of Intermediate wave ((iv)) instead of the one on 21st Sep 2021. This case suggests STI still have longer duration to complete Intermediate wave ((v)) compared to the "leading diagonal" count. This case unfortunately is not detail in this session of the analysis as still awaiting for more confirmation.
Despite all the optimism, those doubts mentioned in red in the above chart should warrant cautions that the STI Positive wave count might not be the correct one after all.
Green -- STI Negative / Red -- STI Negative / Orange -- STI Negative
Despite all the optimism in the Positive scenario, all the 3 STI Negative scenarios still remain valid and none has been invalidated due to rules violation. The present upside of STI is merely the continuity of Cycle B of the Green wave count, Primary 4 of the Red wave count and Primary B of the Orange wave count.
For the Primary 4 of the Red wave count, this will become invalidated when STI breaks above the Primary 2 which is at around 3380 level due to rule violation of wave 4 cannot exceed wave 2.
For the Orange and Green wave count, in particular Green wave count, there is plenty of room for STI to move higher and still unable to invalidate it.
Singapore Covid-19
主将无能垮三军
左士缺策只砸钱
右士辱人自被辱
左象无计只会泣
右象理人理出祸
左马略识色不分
右马讲据终慢拍
小卒仗权乱闹事
大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
城门紧闭称闭窗
高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫
领导者最佳战友
为何小红点缺乏
是否无勇气拥有
是否缺远见拥有
是否不知怎拥有
还是不想去拥有
