Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (103)
FTSE STI closed 3,361.11 for the week ended 22nd Apr 2022 after hitting a peak of 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022.
Magenta -- STI Positive
There is a little tricky part in this wave count. The pull back from 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022 is it a Minute degree of a zigzag in the Minor wave (v) or has Minor wave (v) (also Intermediate wave ((v)) and Primary wave 1) already completed at 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022.
Firstly, for the Minute degree zigzag of Minor wave (v), the duration for that doesn't warrant a continue pull back in the coming week. Secondly, for the case of Primary wave 1 already completed at 3,456.09, Minor wave (v) only lasted for 3 weeks (far less shorter than expected) and the end value of that doesn't surpass Minor wave (iii) (not a rule violation but very uncommon).
These 2 doubts added to those already existing since 2020 (all labeled in red in the above chart) that could signify this wave count is not the correct one.
However, should this wave count still consider valid, it will never be any good news going forward as the moving up shall be the last phase of the Primary wave 1 which will be followed by a deep correction in Primary wave 2. Primary wave 1 lasted 2 years and Primary wave 2 could last between 6 months to 1.5 years, with between 9 months to 1 year being the common occurrence. Anyone get caught during this period will have to stomach that period of holding being underwater.
Green -- STI Negative / Orange -- STI Negative
These 2 negative wave count scenarios have not been invalidated yet and still largely remain valid, staying in the background acting like a silent killer. In fact, the peak of 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022 might be the completion of Cycle wave (B) (for the Green case) or Primary wave B (for the Orange case). If that is true, the downtrend already started. Any rebound in the coming week is merely the formation of the B wave of a typical zigzag pattern. That is also the last chance for any investors to get out before the worst happens.
The above is the all the possible wave count for both the positive and negative scenarios in term of SuperCycle, Cycle and Primary degree.
Singapore on last Friday announced further easing of the Covid-19 restrictions. To many this a positive sign for the nation economy going forward. Unfortunately, the world stock markets have probably "decoupled" from any Covid-19 impact already. The real problem that could cause another global financial crisis is no longer pandemic unless a deadly variant that render all the vaccination useless in prevent severity and death occur. The real killer is more like what could be triggered by inflation, rate hike and stagflation. Central Bankers are never ahead of the curve in their fiscal policies as they all rely on data and not instinct to react. It will not be a big surprise should US be the source of the next global financial crisis again just like 2008. The big difference now is then China was there to support global economy but now China isn't.
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