Continue from STI Analysis -- the next peak or trough ? (110)
FTSE STI closed 3,244.55 for the week ended 25th Nov 2022. With that development, that has some changes in the wave count especially for the positive scenario.
Magenta -- STI Positive
The above is the positive wave count all along. However, due to the progress for the past few weeks, that has casted some doubts on the validity of the wave count. 2 questions were raised as shown in the above chart
1) Questionable Minor wave for Intermediate wave ((c)) -- the duration and height exceeded expectation
2) If Primary wave 2 ended at 2,968.92, the Fibonacci retraction is too shallow for a typical wave 2 -- 38.2% vs 61.8%
As such, has to discard the above wave count and re-adjust so that the positive scenario still remain valid.
Above is the re-adjusted wave count. Here, there are 2 possible cases going forward
case 1 (blue) -- STI still in Primary wave 2 but the Elliott wave degree so far has been downgraded by 1 so that at 2,968.87, STI just completed Intermediate wave ((a)) of Primary wave 2. STI now is in Intermediate wave ((b)) of Primary wave 2
case 2 (magenta) -- The recent peak of 3,466.23 wasn't Primary wave 1 but just Intermediate wave ((iii)) of Primary wave 1. The latest trough at 2,968.87 was Intermediate wave ((iv)) of Primary wave 1. STI is now in Intermediate wave ((v)) of Primary wave 1
The difference between the 2 cases is going forward, case 1 will have very limited upside but for case 2, STI shall break above 3,466.23.
Green -- STI Negative
Firstly, will temporary omit the Orange -- STI Negative scenario (very high probability of incorrect wave count due to duration factor).
Secondly, due to the re-adjustment of the Positive scenario, the Elliott wave degree has to be downgraded by 1 level. Previously STI at 2,968.87 was considered Primary wave A of Cycle wave (C). Now, that level has became Intermediate wave ((a)) of Primary wave A of Cycle wave (C). Presently, STI is now in Intermediate wave ((b)) of Primary wave A of Cycle wave (C).
In addition, though didn't specify in the above chart, STI could be still in Cycle wave (B) to be in line with case 2 (magenta) of the Positive scenario.
Above is the overall wave count for both the Positive and Negative scenario taking in account of the latest re-adjustment.
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