Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (119)
FTSE STI closed 3,189.88 for the week ended 25th Aug 2023.
Magenta -- STI Positive
STI corrected since 11th Aug 2023 for 7 days in a row before staging a rebound in the last 4 days. This movement could potentially give a clearer picture of which wave count is the one for the STI Positive scenario. For case 1 where STI is in Primary wave 2, the sideway movement since hitting a low of 2,968.87 could be developing into a triangle pattern for Intermediate wave ((b)) as shown (blue label) in the above chart. On the other hand, for case 2 (purple label), the sideway movement poses a questionable wave count for this case and could be invalidated going forward.
Green -- STI Negative
For STI Positive scenario, the sideway movement potentially could identify which case should be it, this however, does nothing significant to the STI Negative scenario. The sideway movement just identified as a triangle pattern (potentially) for Intermediate wave ((b)) of Primary A of Cycle (C) of SuperCycle ((C)).
Above is the overall wave count for both the positive and negative scenario in the perspective of Primary, Cycle and SuperCycle degree of Elliott Wave.
Food For Thoughts
China facing the risk of deflation is not going to disappear in the near future and potentially could develop into one. Should it enter one, it will be having different impact to global economy compared to Japan past few decades of deflation. Global inflation might be slowing sign of cooling, it is still at elevated and unacceptable level. Talk of pausing or even cutting of interest rate is still too early. Stress again, prolong period of elevated inflation couple with high interest rate can trigger into stagflation. Stagflation is not something can easily navigate out. It could take few decades (just like deflation) or even a century period to finally resolve.
Singapore will be going to poll on 1st Sept 2023 for Elected Presidential Election. While the scale of that is nothing compared to General Election, in certain aspect, it brings out one important factor. Who will be the next Elected President to safe guard the nation reserve ? Going forward Singapore economy landscape is not at all rosy (risk of deflation from China and still at elevated inflation which could turn into stagflation), how competent the government can dish out policies to navigate the tough road will in one way or another link to the nation reserve. Any incompetent policies will only lead to keep on dipping into the nation reserve for aids. With that, sooner or later, Singapore will be in trouble with its nation reserve. The Elected President MUST have the courage to challenge the Government and say no dipping into the reserve should it become clear cut that the policies are incompetent. Rather than keep dipping into reserve, the correct way should be changed another Government with alternate policies.
Regrettably, majority of the people just vote for the Elected President as if they are polling for a popularity contest. Just refer to those comments from the Straits Times article and you can tell who these dude are. These dudes should be named in the Singapore Hall of Shame. The topics of Elected President being independent and having a close and good working relationship with the Government is nothing but side tracking the most important factor of which of the 3 candidates are the better choice. The key is can this Elected President sees the economy and policies danger and have that courage to say a NO to the Government when comes to dipping into the nation reserve. Let me tell you, being experienced in managing finance (Finance Minister or Investment Chief or CEO of an financial institution) doesn't mean they cannot be wrong in seeing the economy and policies aspect. Their mindset can be trapped and blinded by their experience that they fail to see the risk and danger compared to an outsider.
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是否不知怎拥有
