Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (120)
FTSE STI closed 3,076.69 for the week ended 20th Oct 2023.
Magenta -- STI Positive
The selling off for the week broke down from the triangle boundary and highly indicating that wave (e) of the triangle has ended meaning Intermediate ((b)) for the Primary wave 2 has completed. The subsequence downside shall be Intermediate ((c)) of Primary wave 2. That is for the blue label of the STI Positive scenario. The alternate wave count, the purple label should by now be invalidated. Primary wave 2 typically retracts to 61.8% of wave 1 meaning the fall shall continue to at least 2,687, which is 389.69 or 12.67% fall from 20th Oct 2023 closing. The fall would not be a straight free fall as it will at least doing a zig-zag pattern with a mini rebound along the way.
Green -- STI Negative
Similar to the STI Positive scenario, the triangle pattern has been broken indicating Intermediate ((b)) of Primary wave A of Cycle (C) of SuperCycle ((C)) has completed. Unlike the STI Positive scenario, the ending point for the correction still far away. After Primary wave A, a rebound will be followed for Primary wave B and finally follows by Primary wave C to complete the whole SuperCycle correction which started in 2007.
Food For Thoughts
Global inflation at elevated level less China still the issue for the performance of global stock markets. Recent data might have shown sign of inflation getting a pause but that is not the outcome that will be good for global economy in the long run. It is not pause but rather cooling down to the acceptable level in the shortest possible time that is the answer. As long as inflation remains at elevated level, interest rate will continue to stay high, nevertheless a pause in rate hike. Prolong period of that will trigger stagflation, a scenario that could take decades or even a century to fully resolved. A possible way to fasten deflate the elevated inflation is none other than economy recession. Global economy might not be facing one based on data, inducing one is one of the method to overcome the elevated inflation. Unfortunately, none of the countries willing to induce one as to them this is a sign of political weakness to the nation government. With that, global economy is facing the risk of stagflation as days go by. Selfishness in politics leads to long term suffering in the future.
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