Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (121)
FTSE STI closed 3,170.76 on 27th Dec 2023
Magenta -- STI Positive
STI experienced an upturn since early December 2023. However, don't get too carried away as this pretty much the anti direction of the Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave 2 in the STI positive scenario. The year end window dressing and probably the Capricorn effect might continue to drive STI up in the next few weeks.
Green -- STI Negative
There isn't much change for the STI Negative scenario, STI still in Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave A or Cycle wave (C) of SuperCycle wave ((C)). While for the STI Positive scenario, the downside might be pretty much limited and shorter duration to reach, this is not the case for the STI Negative scenario. There is much more downside to go and a much longer time frame for it to achieve.
The above is the larger picture of both the STI Positive and Negative scenario for the past 10 years.
Food For Thoughts
Global inflation is tapering and there are already talk of Central Bankers starting to cut rate next year. This in general is a positive news to global stock market. However, thing is not so straight forward and as easy as ABC. Inflation still have to monitor carefully and not putting the foot off the pedal. Inflation still at elevated level despite the taming for the past months. A little over complacent will jolly well see inflation rebound and stay at the stubborn elevated level. Have to remember, prolong period of elevated inflation with elevated interest rate will do no good for the economy in the long run and is a time bomb to enter stagflation.
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