Tuesday, October 23, 2018

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (30)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (29)

While looking at the wave count of the 3 local banks (refer here), discovered STI chart looks very similar to the 3 local banks.  That raise the possibility that the STI wave count leading to present correction might be incorrect.  That is instead STI Primary Wave 1 to peak in January 2018, it behaves like the 3 local banks that peaked in May 2018.  This is possible if taken into account of the Intermediate Wave 3 extension (similar to the 3 local banks) for the Primary Wave 1.  Below is the chart to illustrate that


The Intermediate Wave 3, S3C3P1I3 is extended in which the sub-level Minor degree is seen clearly defined (S3C3P1I3M1 - S3C3P1I3M5).  Applying the Fibonacci ratio, the followings are recorded :-

S3C3P1I2 = 59.95% S3C3P1I1
S3C3P1I3 = 207.78% S3C3P1I1
S3C3P1I4 = 30.07% S3C3P1I3
S3C3P1I5 = 69.79% S3C3P1I1

The standard model for 3rd wave extension is w1:w3:w5 = 1:2.618:1.  Though not closely matches as wave 3 is less than 261.8% but more than 161.8% of wave 1 and wave 5 falls short of 100%, it is still possible as no rules violation were observed for that count.  Looking into lower degree, the Minor degree, for the extended 3rd wave, the followings were recorded :-

M2 = 62% M1
M3 = 219.60% M1
M4 = 28.05% M3
M5 = 167.20% M1

Comparing to the standard model, this 5-wave matches more closely than that of the Intermediate degree.  Thus, the possibility that this wave count should be the correct one instead of previous analysis.  What's the implication ?  The peak of Primary Wave 1 is different, the Fibonacci level for which Primary Wave 2 to retrace also different (different slightly -- 2954 - 3085 vs 2942 - 3070) and the most important, the wave count for the present correction, the pattern of the correction is different.


The top chart is the previous correction wave count, a double-three combination of Expanded Flat - Zigzag.  The Expanded Flat consists of a Flat as the first 3 of the 3-3-5 structure.  

The bottom chart is the new correction wave count.  The Flat pattern within the Expanded Flat in the previous wave count is no more as it is actually the S3C3P1I4 correction.  The 5-wave impulse of the Expanded Flat now becomes the 1st pattern of the correction. With that, this makes the overall correction pattern more simple.  In fact, is similar to the 3 local banks correction pattern.  The only correction pattern with a 5-wave as first part except of a combination is a zigzag (5-3-5).  Its also make more sense as a wave 2 (Primary Wave 2) correction typically is a zigzag, deep and sharp.  The 5-wave impulse ended at 3176 making it Wave A, the rebound to 3348 is Wave B and presently is Wave C.  Wave C should be another 5-wave but looking at the way it is being played out, it looks more like a 5-wave diagonal than an impulse.  The 5-wave diagonal of Wave C looks only completed of wave i and ii.  Thus the ongoing is wave iii.

Statistical calculation for Wave A :-

wave ii =  46.22% wave i
wave iii = 133.61% wave i
wave iv = 48.43% wave iii
wave v = 268.07% wave i or 143.05% wave i - iii

Not really the typical model ratio but it is acceptable given the guideline stating that should wave iii is less than 161.8% of wave i, wave v length would be 100% or 161.8% of wave i - iii.

For the Primary Wave 2, 

50% of Wave 1 = 3086
61.8% of Wave 1 = 2954
78.6% of Wave = 2767

If Wave C = Wave A, it will end up at 2883, which is between the 61.8% - 78.6%, which happens 15% of the time while 73% of the time happens between 50% - 61.8%.  It is a race between whether should it follow the guideline of Wave A = Wave C or where Wave 2 occur most of the time.  Technically, looking at the 5-wave of Wave C should be able to project the ending point but a 5-wave diagonal unfortunately has not Fibonacci ratio guideline.  Just have to wait for the Wave C 5-wave diagonal to develop for the time being.




Monday, October 22, 2018

Corporate Result -- Oct/Nov 2018

1. SPH Reit  --  11th Oct 2018
2. Keppel Reit  --  15th Oct 2018
3. Keppel DC Reit  --  16th Oct 2018
4. Kep Infra Trust  --  16th Oct 2018
5. First Reit  --  16th Oct 2018
6. Kep-KBS US Reit  --  17th Oct 2018
7. Kep T&T  --  17th Oct 2018
8. Kep Corp  --  18th Oct 2018
9. FrasersCom Trust  --  19th Oct 2018
10. SGX  --  19th Oct 2018
11. Mapletreelog Trust  --  22nd Oct 2018
12. MapletreeInd Trust  --  23rd Oct 2018
13. Frasers Cpt Trust  --  24th Oct 2018
14. MapletreeCom Trust  --  24th Oct 2018
15. Suntec Reit  --  24th Oct 2018
16. M1  --  24th Oct2018
17. Semb Mar  --  25th Oct 2018
18. Parkway Life  --  25th Oct 2018
19. CapitaMall Trust  --  25th Oct 2018
20. Ascendas Reit  --  25th Oct 2018
21. UOB  --  26th Oct 2018
22. Mapletree NACT  --  26th Oct 2018
23. CapitaCom Trust  --  26th Oct 2018
24. CDL HTrust  --  30th Oct 2018
25. CapitaR China Trust  --  30th Oct 2018
26. Starhill Global  --  30th Oct 2018
27. Ascendas HTrust  --  31st Oct 2018
28. OCBC  --  1st Nov 2018
29. Ascott REIT  --  1st Nov 2018
30. Semb Corp  --  2nd Nov 2018
31. NetLinkNBN Trust  --  2nd Nov 2018
32. DBS  --  5th Nov 2018
33. Frasers L&I Trust  --  5th Nov 2018
34. VICOM  --  7th Nov 2018
35. SIA Engg  --  8th Nov 2018
36. City Dev  --  8th Nov 2018
37. SBS Transit  --  8th Nov 2018
38. Genting Sing  --  8th Nov 2018
39. ComfortDelGro  --  9th Nov 2018
40. SIA  --  13th Nov 2018