Sunday, December 9, 2018

Stock Incubator Part 3.1 -- Creative Technology Limited

On 29th Nov 2018 Creative Technology made an announcement titled "75 Million Users To Enjoy Super X-Fi Headphone Holography As Creative Partners With iVideoSmart".  That is a piece of positive news as it signals Super X-Fi technology is being used commercially but definitely not as bombastic as "Creative Partner Smartphone Maker For Super X-Fi Solution".  This is mainly because not many people know iVideoSmart and what products/services/solutions its offers.  iVideoSmart might have seen something in Creative's Super X-Fi technology that could give an edge to business if not the partnership doesn't make any business sense.  Nevertheless, this is a little positive step forward for Creative on its Super X-Fi technology.

On 3rd Dec 2018 another announcement from Creative Technology surfaced titled "Creative and POPULAR Announce Partnership To Bring Super X-Fi Products To Singapore Islandwide".  This time I believe the reaction of the public to this piece of news is rather muted and puzzled as compared to the iVideoSmart partnership.  Many would wonder who would go buy electronics gadgets from a bookstore.  In actual fact, POPULAR has been selling Creative limited range of products like speaker, headphone, earpiece, etc on its chain of outlets for as long as I could remember so including the Super X-Fi Amp is just another additional item on the shelves that all.  Creative used to have flagship store in Funan IT Mall but now if anyone want to buy Creative products, it can only be done either online or go down personally to its office if POPULAR does not have that product.  Thus, the partnership opens up another channel for consumers to purchase the Super X-Fi Amp.  I won't take that as negative news as through the partnership, POPULAR could in a way help in the marketing of the Super X-Fi Amp.

The above is the setup I have for my Super X-Fi Amp.  An AUX splitter at the output end of the Super X-Fi Amp to allow for a wired output and a wireless output via the Bluetooth audio transmitter.  As I only use the Super X-Fi Amp on my laptop or desktop for listening to music & songs while working and watching drama for entertainment, this setup is probably the best solution for me to enjoy both wired and wireless connection.  The wired portion is being connected to Stereo Speaker while the Bluetooth transmitter is for wireless headphone.  

While Super X-Fi is meant for headphone/earpiece, the effect it has on speaker is still a significant difference compared to without.  For my setup, if I have a pair of Stereo Speaker that has some enhancement on the bass (must have enhancement) and in Windows/Mac I set the configuration to allow a 7.1 surround sound being output from the Super X-Fi Amp, the sound coming out of the speakers gives a feel like you are listening from a soundbar.  A soundbar has a minimum 3 speakers to a maximum of 7 speakers in the unit plus a subwoofer but in my case I only have 2 speakers.  Moreover, if without the Super X-Fi Amp, the sound being heard is like being punched out from the speakers to your ear.  With the Super X-Fi Amp, that effect is gone and sound just reaches my ear naturally.  This is due to the directional effect of the Super X-Fi.

The wireless connection is for sometime I wanted to enjoy the listening at a distance.  In fact this wireless connection can also apply to wireless speaker (my Stereo Speaker has the bluetooth feature too and that pair of speaker cost me less than $100).  Bluetooth audio transmitter (or transmitter cum receiver) with Bluetooth version 4.1 or 4.2 or even 5.0 supporting SBC, AptX, AptX Low Latency, AptX HD codec is easily available for sub $50.  The key is must be able to support at least AptX codec apart from the de facto SBC and the wireless headphone must have the same feature too.  This is to ensure you won't get the lip sync effect in the sound you hear from the movie or drama.  For pure listening to music and songs, SBC codec is sufficient.  This is also the case why Sony PS4 has disabled its bluetooth headsets feature to avoid the sound lag issue.  The wireless connection terminology is quite similar to the SXFI Air which Creative is yet to launch (suppose to target iPhone users) but there is an actual difference.  SXFI Air is processed the bluetooth transmitted signal to give user the holography effect.  My setup on the other hand is the post processed holography data are being bluetooth transmitted.  Microscopically, looking at the "1" and "0" of the data there should be difference as codec is not totally lossless.  However, most people should not be able to hear the difference.

So why not just wait for the SXFI Air and don't need such a "complicated" setup ?  Well that personal preference as I do not enjoy prolong usage of headphone/earpiece and at the same time I want to enjoy the Super X-Fi holography effect from speakers.  Moreover, it is still unclear the exact technical specification of SXFI Air, will it support at least AptX codec ?  If it does, I believe Creative has to license from Qualcomm and that could increase the cost of SXFI Air compared to without.

So what do the above test have on decision to invest in Creative stock for its Super X-Fi technology ?  Well put it this way, the setup above affirm that the Super X-Fi holography effect is workable outside headphone/earpiece.  This means opening up more options in partnership instead to just headphone/earpiece makers.  Having the Super X-Fi technology inside a smartphone, a tablet, a game console, a TV set, a motherboard for laptop or desktop or even speakers are becoming feasible.

Now, with all these options, the success of Super X-Fi for Creative will boil down to the strategy the management going to take.  I believe the management this time having learned the lesson from its past Sound Card and Zen MP3 player failure will not just sell the Super X-Fi products.  It is licensing the technology or the solution to third party to avoid getting into the scenario that should the products sale fail, the decade long research & development will just go down the drain.  This is similar to the concept of 孙子兵法第七篇军争篇 I believe.

Meanwhile, just have to wait patiently for other partnerships to materialize.

Saturday, December 8, 2018

STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (35)

Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (34)

The pull back for STI after hitting 3192.88 on 3rd Dec 2018 wasn't something unexpected.  The pull back should have some more downside to go to around the 3078 level and it does look very possible next week given STI closed 3111.12 on 7th Dec 2018.  This is because considering STI is developing into a 3rd wave extension of 3rd wave pattern as shown in the chart below.

The 3rd wave is the M3 wave and its extension is the 5-wave pattern of its lower degree, the Minute degree (m1 - m5).  The pull back STI is doing now is the m2 corrective wave.  For this pattern to be valid, the current pull back should not fall below 3007.31 while a drop below 3047 (the 78.6% Fibonacci level) could be an early sign of invalidation.  For the upside validation of this pattern, the m3 wave should be a strong impulsive rally with no significant pull back in between to the calculated 3378 (161.8% of m1).  Fulfilling these criteria, STI will be on track to break the key level at 3338, a level that really signifies correction since May 2018 is totally over.  At least for non Elliott Wave TA practitioners, the shout of bull market is back will be heard.

In the past analysis, the top-down and bottom-up statistical analysis were calculated at every stage of development to determine any convergence point occurs.  This is another way to affirm the existing Elliott wave count is valid or not.  However, past efforts always result in non convergence.  Now, another attempt to look at it.

Statistical Analysis
1. Top-down Analysis
March 2009 low of 1455.47 was SuperCycle wave 2 (S2), the high of 3549.85 on April 2015 was the Cycle wave 1 of SuperCycle wave 3 (S3C1).  The low of 2528.44 on February 2016 was the Cycle wave 2 of SuperCycle wave 3 (S3C2).  Now, STI is in Cycle wave 3 of SuperCycle wave 3 (S3C3).  

S2 = 1455.47
S3C1 = 3549.85
S3C2 = 2528.44 (48.77% S3C1)

Using the basic Elliott wave model of w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 1.618 : 1, S3C3 = 5917.15.  

2. Bottom-up Analysis
S3C3 will be broken down into lower degree levels of Primary, Intermediate, Minor and Minute and from there work all the way up.

Minute Degree
S3C3P3I1M3m0 = 3007.31 (21 Nov 2018)
S3C3P3I1M3m1 = 3192.88 (3 Dec 2018)
S3C3P3I1M3m2 = 3078.20 (calculated 61.8% S3C3P3I1M3m1)
S3C3P3I1M3m3 = 3378.45 (calculated 161.8% S3C3P3I1M3m1)
S3C3P3I1M3m4 = 3263.75 (calculated 38.2% S3C3P3I1M3m3)
S3C3P3I1M3m5 = 3449.32 (calculated 100% S3C3P3I1M3m1)

Minor Degree
S3C3P3I1M0 = 2955.68 (26 Oct 2018)
S3C3P3I1M1 = 3121.27 (2 Nov 2018)
S3C3P3I1M2 = 3007.31 (21 Nov 2018)
S3C3P3I1M3 = 3440.83 (calculated 261.8% S3C3P3I1M1)
S3C3P3I1M4 = 3275.22 (calculated 38.2% S3C3P3I1M3)
S3C3P3I1M5 = 3543.15 (calculated 161.8% S3C3P3I1M1)

Elliott wave model of w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 2.618 : 1.618 was used instead of 1 : 1.618 : 1 as this is to cater for the 3rd wave extension of 3rd wave STI could be developing now.  S3C3P3I1M3m5 (=S3C3P3I1M3) from Minute Degree calculation is 3449.32 while from Minor Degree calculation is 3440.83.  That is only a difference of 8.49, a small enough value to be considered both values as being converged.

Intermediate Degree
S3C3P3I0 = 2955.68 (26 Oct 2018)
S3C3P3I1 = 3543.15 (from calculation of S3C3P3I1M5)
S3C3P3I2 = 3180.09 (calculated 61.8% S3C3P3I1)
S3C3P3I3 = 4130.62 (calculated 161.8% S3C3P3I1)
S3C3P3I4 = 3767.52 (calculated 38.2% S3C3P3I3)
S3C3P3I5 = 4354.99 | 4718.05 (calculated 100% | 161.8% S3C3P3I1)

Elliott wave model of w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 1.618 : 1 and 1 : 1.618 : 1.618 are used.

Primary Degree
S3C3P0 = 2528.44 (3 Feb 2016)
S3C3P1 = 3641.65 (2 May 2018)
S3C3P2 = 2955.68 (61.62% S3C3P1)
S3C3P3 = 4756.85 (calculated 161.8% S3C3P1)
S3C3P4 = 4068.81 (calculated 38.2% S3C3P3)
S3C3P5 = 5869.98 (calculated 161.8% S3C3P1)

S3C3P3 from Primary Degree calculation is 4756.85 while from Intermediate Degree it is 4718.05 (with w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 1.618 : 1.618 model).  That is a difference of only 38.8, another small enough value to be considered both value being converged.

S3C3P5 from Primary Degree calculation is 5869.98 (using w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 1.618 : 1.618 model) while from top-down Cycle Degree calculation is 5917.15.  The difference is 47.17, another small enough value to be considered both value being converged.

As from the above statistical analysis it can be seen values are being converged from both top-down to bottom-up analysis.  Though some variants of the Elliott wave model are being used instead of just a simple one throughout, this doesn't mean the analysis is inaccurate.  In fact Elliott wave operates in various model according to different Fibonacci ratio so using various models is not any violation.

Does that mean the current wave count is valid ?  It is not a definite answer but a high possibility and this possibility shall remain valid until rules are being violated.  Meanwhile, the option of correction still no yet over remains open as long as 3338 level yet to breakout.

For those familiar with Technical Analysis indicator GMMA should now realize the famous GMMA 1-2-3 breakout pattern as shown in the above chart.

Added 10th Dec 2018

With no surprise STI fell further today reaching an intra-day low of 3064.02 and closed 3072.44, hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci level for m2 wave at 3078.20.  Another rebound from there subsequently should affirm m2 wave completed.  However, further drop to below 3047 could be an early signal that current wave count is invalid.  Of course the confirmation for invalid will be STI fall below 3007.31.  An interesting statistic was recorded today.

w0 = 3192.88
wA = 3105.63
wB = 3149.71 (50.52% wA)
wC = 3062.46 (calculated 100% wA vs actual 3064.02)

The guideline for m2 wave following a ABC pattern (wA - wC) all fitted in well.  wB with a guideline of between 38% - 79% was done at 50.52%.  wC = wA = 3062.46 was very near to today intra-day low of 3064.02.  If wC = 123.6% wA = 3041.87, that will be near the m2 78.6% Fibonacci level at 3047, a possibility for m2.  So far statistically, all the levels are within the projected Elliott wave count.

Added 12th Dec 2018

STI closed 3099.99 for the day after hitting an intra-day high of 3101.10.  The low of 3053.99 yesterday could be the completion of m2.  3053.99 just fall in between the 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, a very typical range for wave 2 correction.  To affirm this, STI must break above 3150 by 14th Dec 2018 and 3192.88 by 18th Dec 2018.  This momentum is the typical wave 3 impulsive action and by doing so it will affirm STI has competed m2 and in m3.