Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (122)
Updated 29th April 2024
There is another possible EW count for the negative scenario, denoted by the Red labelling as shown in the above chart. This wave count put the peak of 2007 as SuperCycle wave ((3)) meaning the correction thereafter till now is SuperCycle wave ((4)). This correction instead of doing the typical A-B-C, is doing a Double-Three combination (W)-(X)-(Y). Cycle (W) ended at 2009 low, Cycle (X) is a triangle ended in 2018. The low in 2020 due to Covid-19 was Primary wave A for the Cycle (Y). The Cycle (Y) could be doing a triangle giving the Double-Three combination a Zigzag - Triangle combination. 2020 low was the axis A, 2022 was the axis B and now in the C wave of the triangle, which direction is pointing down for STI.
17th April 2024
FTSE STI closed 3,154.69 on 17th Apr 2024, a rebound day after past few sessions of closing in the red.
Magenta -- STI Positive / Green -- STI Negative
The last analysis was done in Dec 2023 and the reason for past 3 months of no analysis was mainly due to not much changes in the EW pattern for both the STI Positive and STI Negative scenario. However, with the movement lately, there seem to be a clear EW pattern being defined.
Firstly, for the STI Positive scenario (Magenta color) as shown from the above chart, present EW count is in Primary wave 2. As for the STI Negative scenario (Green color), present EW count is in the Cycle wave (C) of the SuperCycle wave ((C)). Either of these 2 scenario are pointing to more downside going forward.
Secondly, zooming in to the movement since 2021, paying attention in particular to the low achieve in Oct 2022 till now. There appeared a triangle pattern (3-3-3-3-3) with axes a-b-c-d-e being clearly defined as shown in the above chart. This triangle pattern in the STI Positive scenario is the Intermediate wave ((b)) of Primary wave 2. For the STI Negative scenario, it is the Intermediate wave ((b)) of Primary wave A or Cycle wave (C) of SuperCycle wave ((C)). After the formation of this triangle pattern of the B-wave, what's next shall be the C-wave of the corrective wave in EW, meaning more downside coming in the near term.
In general TA, the breakdown of the lower boundary line would confirm the bearish of STI going forward. However, for EW, pattern recognizing is a way to detect direction ahead and appropriate measures to be taken before eventually said direction being realized.
There isn't lack of events currently to deduce direction of the stock market especially to the downside. Geopolitical tension that could lead to war would be one of those but let put it in a more rational way, if a big scale war does erupt, no countries in this world would gain, not even the one that initiate the war. Thus, this would rather be an impulse effect to the stock markets but not a defining one. The ongoing stubborn high inflation would be one of those event that could lead to a more catastrophe outcome going forward, leading to stagflation. Japan suffered 4 decades of deflation and while deflation can't lead to stagflation but inflation could. A pro long high inflation level couple with elevated interest rate would eventually lead to stagflation despite in the near term economy doesn't seem to suffer. Stagflation is decades or even century long type of issue which can't be resolve in the shortest possible of time. Of course there is this unexpected event that could be one of that factor. never rule out unexpected event just like Covid-19 that suddenly appeared from nowhere.
Food For Thoughts
Human psychology effect plays a vital role in stock market cycle, bull to bear to bull and so on. In fact, human psychology effect practically dictates almost every events in this world. From few thousands years ago till now, pattern has been repeated over and over again. One of the most prominent one is none other than politics. Rises from ashes to dominance and eventually fallen from grace, this pattern repeats itself over and over again in few thousands years of human's history. That how regimes and dynasties came and went over and over again. Here in Singapore, there shall be a handling over of leadership role from 3G to 4G next month. Like it or not, everything is just following the scrip of rises from ashes to dominance and eventually fallen from grace. 1G rose from ashes to build up the nation, 2G propelled the nation to dominance, 3G started the fallen from grace and 4G eventually will lead to the stage of self-destruction of the party and complete the fallen from grace. Even if EW (a model to describe people psychology to particular event) is to be used to map out the political scene, it will still give the same conclusion. Nothing more, nothing less, nothing to argue about and nothing to deny, that the true hard fact.
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Singapore Covid-19
柏杨写了一本丑陋的中国人，Covid-19却写了一篇丑陋的新加坡人
主将无能垮三军
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右士辱人自被辱
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右象理人理出祸
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右马讲据终慢拍
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大敌当前夸本领
火烧眉头方才悟
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高傲自大多借口
知错不认真懦夫
领导者最佳战友
为何小红点缺乏
是否无勇气拥有
是否缺远见拥有
是否不知怎拥有
