Wednesday, December 20, 2017

STI Analysis -- 20th Dec 2017

Seems like the analysis I did on 7th Oct 2017 citing STI is in the wave 5 of the uptrend could be wrong.  With STI dropping below 3,4000 level today and its PE still nowhere near the bubble stage, it is rather difficult to convince STI is in the wave 5 of the uptrend.  As such, another analysis was done as shown in the following figure.


The above figure shows that instead of wave 5, STI probably just completed wave 3 with 3,468 as its peak.  As such, the current descend is the wave 4.  The different between the above and the previous chart is wave 2.  Previous chart I analyzed as having a triangular wave 2 but in this case it is just a pure simple zigzag pattern.  With that, it can clearly define the sub-wave i,ii,iii,iv,v of the wave 3 (purple line).  

Now if now is wave 4 then where it will end ?  Normally, wave 4 pull back 38.2% of wave 3 or end near around sub-wave 4 of wave 3.  That will be around STI 3,182 to 3,212.  That probably can cause some panic with that figure now. 

The level to watch now will be STI 3,350.  Should that be broken, it will invalidate the previous analysis that we are in wave 5 and move us to the above analysis that wave 3 just completed and we are in wave 4.