The failure of STI to breakout from 3340 meant STI still in Minute wave 2 (P3I5M1M2). This has a potential downside of 3238 for a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. However, looking at the volume on a down day, a 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement to 3211 look possible too. Anything below 3211 raise the possibility of invalidation of Scenario 1 and 2.1. The above is the optimistic view of Elliott Wave count of STI.
Thus, 3340 is very crucial for STI at the moment. A breakout from there after so many attempts would serve as a good support for the upside and maintain the Elliott Wave count for Scenario 1 and 2.1. The different between Scenario 1 and 2.1 is the peak of Primary wave 1. Scenario 1 peak is the high in 2015 (3525.18) and scenario 2 peak is high in 2011 (3261.35). Failure to breakout from 3340 will lead to STI still in Intermediate wave 2 of Primary wave 3. In this case, the overall uptrend for STI since 2009 still intact.
Added 13th Aug 2018
STI hit an intra-day low of 3239.32, almost on the dot of 3238, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement before closing at 3245.34. Has the bottom reach for the Minute wave 2 correction ? Can't confirm at the moment as it can drop some more to the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement at 3211 unless the Turkish Government comes out with some policies to please the market. On the other hand, a rebound and breaking the multi tested resistance at 3340 should confirm the end of Minute wave 2 correction. Looking at plain pattern, it does look like a simple zigzag correction with Minuette wave A ended at 3264.61, Minuette wave B ended at 3347.98 and now the Minuette wave C. Another interesting statistic is if goes by guideline Minuette wave C = 1.618x of Minuette wave A, that will fall to 3218, very close to the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement for Minute wave 2.
Added 14th Aug 2018
STI fell to an intra-day low of 3231.97, below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement but closed above it at 3243.24. Either STI is trying to find support around 3240 or struggling at 3240. The next few days should be critical. Should STI fail to hold at 3240, the next target will be at the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement at 3211.
Added 15th Aug 2018
STI fell to an intra-day low of 3217.89, just few points above the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at 3211 before recovering to close at 3234.12, still down from previous day. Now the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level will determine whether STI is in Minute wave 2 or still in the correction phase which started early January 2018 (Intermediate wave 2).
Added 16th Aug 2018
As expected STI tested the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at 3211 hitting intra-day low of 3207.25 and closing on the dot at 3211.93. Technically, by the rule of Elliott Wave Minute wave 2 can only invalidate if STI falls below 3176.26, the continuous weakness and selling does raise the possibility of invalidating this wave count. While news that China and US are preparing for a new round of trade talks and Qatar pledging US$15b investment in Turkey are on the positive development, should STI going to react positively and do a rebound the next few days, the Minute wave 2 count should be safe.
Added 17th Aug 2018
Not a good sign ! STI opend positive rose to intra-day high of 3243.95 but closed lower than yesterday at 3209.44, even hitting an intra-day low of 3203.33. That levels are below the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level for a Minute wave 2 correction. Though this wave count can only be invalidated if STI falls below 6th Jul 2018 low of 3176.26 but the possibility of doing that has risen given the performance. STI are down 7 successive days since 8th Aug 2018.
