The data was from 2000 till now and for that period of 18 years, it appears only move from Supercycle Wave ((C)) to Supercycle Wave ((1)) and to Supercycle Wave ((2)).
Wave ((C)) happened in 2003, the period when economy recession (2001 to 2003) plus SARS outbreak sent its price into correction.
Wave ((1)) peaked in 2007 prior to the 2008 GFC due to US subprime crisis. In general market indices and most stocks recovered from the correction in 2009 but Capitaland continued the corrective till now, a period of 11 years. It is quite a lengthy correction but not impossible in Elliott Wave Supercycle degree, the longest encountered so far is Creative Technology's 15 years. As for what caused the correction to be so long, there could be multiple fundamental issues. This is where the interesting point that decide to archive down.
The Supercycle Wave ((2)) correction plays out to be a very big ascending triangle pattern as shown in the chart. The Cycle degree Wave (A), (B), (C) and (D) of the triangle have been formed. The question now is has Wave (E) form ? It does appear it has been formed when it hits $2.98 in Jul 2018. Should that be true, Supercycle Wave ((2)) has completed and now it is into Supercycle Wave ((3)). The breaking out of the ascending triangle at $3.72 should confirm that.
It is possible to do an early confirmation before the breaking out of the triangle occur, that is through Elliott Wave statistic analysis.
Supercycle Wave ((1)) is at $5.22. If $2.98 is the end of the correction, then Cycle Wave (1) of the Supercycle Wave ((3)) in theory should either be or exceed $5.22. If it can exceed that will be a very positive sign. This situation has been commonly occurred.
The above chart is what happening at this moment. The price hit a peak at $3.46 in Aug 2018 and pull back. Assuming that was Intermediate degree Wave I, current pull back should be Intermediate Wave II. This wave count shall be invalid should the price falls below $3.08. Break down at $3.08 will indicate Wave (E) is still forming. If the assumption is true, the basic Elliott Wave model (w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 1.618 : 1) will be used to calculate where Primary degree Wave 1 and eventually where Cycle degree Wave (1) will be.
Intermediate Wave 0 = $2.98
Intermediate Wave I = $3.46
Calculated Intermediate Wave V (Primary Wave 1) = $4.12
Calculated Primary Wave 5 (Cycle Wave (1)) = $5.70
The calculated Cycle Wave (1) is more than the peak of Supercycle Wave ((1)) thereby further enforcing the wave count is correct. That should be a good news BUT the bad new is have to wait at least few years or even a decade to eventually see the peak of Supercycle Wave ((3)).
Added 7th Oct 2018
After the Supercycle Wave ((2)) correction shall be the powerful upthrust of Supercycle Wave ((3)). Given that a high probably within the next 2 years there will be another financial crisis and another economic recession, how to justify Capitaland shall be in Supercycle Wave ((3)) ?
Fundamental dictates the price movement and seeing how the price is being described by Elliott Wave now, fundamental is the key issue compared with other stocks listed in SGX in which they are either 1/3 or 1/2 way into the Supercycle Wave ((3)). Take a look at the Shanghai Composite Index (refer here) it is also doing a Supercycle Wave ((2)) correction now (either coming to an end or still have a bit more to go). In another word, Capitaland is tracking SSEC rather STI. Why so ? China contributes 1/3 to 40% of Capitaland total revenue, about 45% to 50% is from ASEAN and the rest is outside those 2 regions. China since the 2008 GFC has been reforming its economic model from a heavily reliance on export to one focus on services and consumers consumption. That is practically a change of fundamental and that explains why SSEC does not follow the performance as rest of the market indices. With 1/3 of its revenue from a slowing China coupled with the effect of cooling measures in the property market in Singapore for the past few years, there isn't any strong catalysts for Capitaland's price to move out the correction, it is like having 50% of its total revenue being pecked down all these while.
Now, the interesting thing is going forward. Should what Elliott Wave analysis on SSEC and Capitaland is trying to describe -- a Supercycle Wave ((3)) next, this is proving what I've been suspecting for the past few years to be true. China's One Belt One Road is the final piece of puzzle for its economic reform and the operation of that will imply China is forming one of the pillar beside US to support the global economy. In fact, global economy needs 4 pillars and not one leader (in US or China) going forward else we can see another Great Depression coming. The other 2 pillars are EU (still repairing its damage due to the Euro crisis few years ago) and either India, ASEAN or Africa (depending which of the 3 can emerge a strong leader to realize that).
Once the OBOR starts, China's economy shall have completed the reform and SSEC is on Supercycle Wave ((3)). Capitaland with its heavy exposure to China no doubt will be benefiting from that and hence in Supercycle Wave ((3)). If there is going to be another financial crisis and recession within the next 2 years, how possible they still can be in Supercycle Wave ((3)) ? China economy is big and strong enough (in fact China has never entered economy recession and even the 2008 GFC they are the only one in the world not in recession) and providing the cause of the next financial crisis is not China then there is no reason why its cannot be on Supercycle Wave ((3)). As for Capitaland, it will be hit, in fact a tug-of-war with China investment pulling things up and the non-China investment pulling things down. Thus, it will move into the Cycle degree corrective wave (Supercycle Wave ((3)) is broken down into 5-waves in Cycle degree) as compared to rest of the stocks moving into Supercycle degree corrective wave.
Should more stocks having heavy China exposure (not China companies) also displaying that Elliott Wave behavior, the above analysis should be true.
