An invalid wave count from previous analysis due to rule violation. Doing a recount to rectify the mistake.
Recount at the Supercycle degree as the correctness in Supercycle will ensure whatever count in the lower degree to be correct. As data range is from 1994 to 2018, that duration is not enough to fit in 1 complete Supercycle degree cycle. Hence, to narrow down the possibilities, the following criteria shall be used.
1. Supercycle degree corrective waves will occur during economic recession
2. Supercycle or Cycle degree corrective waves will occur when company or industry fundamental is in weakness state
Wave Count 1 (Black)
Supercycle Wave ((1)) peaked in 2000 and Supercycle Wave ((2)) lasted from 2000 to 2009 due to economic recession in 2001-2003 and 2008-2009 plus the industry weakness after dot.com bubble. Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2018 and now in Supercycle Wave ((4)). Wave ((4)) correction is due to weakness in company fundamental. However, this wave count is invalid as Wave ((4)) overlaps Wave ((1)), a rule violation.
Wave Count 2 (Red)
Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2000 and Supercycle Wave ((4)) lasted from 2000 till 2009. This was due to multiple recession in 2001-2003 and 2008-2009 plus industry weakness after dot.com bubble. Supercycle Wave ((5)) started in 2009 and lasted till 2018 and now it is in Supercycle Wave ((A)). No rule violation in wave count but the amount being retraced in Wave ((4)) is questionable to be considered valid. Wave ((4)) low is about $2.40 while Wave ((1)) peak is $19.22, that is about 88% retracement.
Wave Count 3 (Green)
Supercycle Wave ((5)) peaked in 2000 and Supercycle Wave ((A))-((B))-((C)) lasted from 2000 to 2009 due to multiple recession in 2001-2003 and 2008-2009 plus industry weakness after dot.com bubble. Wave ((1)) of the new Supercycle peaked in 2018 and now it is in Wave ((2)) of the new Supercycle. This wave count does not have any rules violation but an initial doubts was why Wave ((2)) happen given there isn't any recession ? However, this initial can be explained and will illustrate so below.
From the above 3 wave counts, only Wave Count 3 (Green) appears to be correct as there is not rule violation and no doubts in the count. The question now is has Wave ((2)) completed ?
Firstly, since the peak in Apr 2018, the price of Venture Corporation if considered Wave ((1)) has retraced only between 38.2% to 50%, not a deep correction (61.8%) for a typical Wave 2. Furthermore, from the correction pattern above, it is yet to establish one of those correction patterns. In other word, the correction has yet to run its full course. So far only Cycle degree Wave (A) has been formed (Primary degree Wave A-B-C). Current price appears to be rebounding but that could be seen as Cycle degree Wave (B), the false-rally leg of the correction. Given the time frame that another global financial crisis which will result in recession could come 2 years later and that fit in nicely from now till then is the forming of Wave ((B)). When the next financial crisis strikes, that will be the final leg of the Supercycle Wave ((2)), Cycle degree Wave (C). With this possibility, this could explain why the correction is still ongoing. Not to mention after the completion of Cycle Wave (B), the final leg Wave (C) could eventually lead Supercycle Wave ((2)) to a Fibonacci Retracement level between 61.8% to 78.8%, a common for wave 2 correction.
The above is the most possible wave count based on the price performance so far.
