Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (104)
FTSE STI closed at 3,240.58 on 20th May 2022 after hitting a peak of 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022.
Magenta -- STI Positive
Based on how STI has performed since hitting the peak of 3,456.09 on 29th Mar 2022, it is rather unconvincing to believe for this STI Positive scenario wave count Primary wave 1 still yet to complete. It's more likely that Primary wave 1 has completed at 3,456.09 and now STI is in Primary wave 2, the correction wave. Wave 2 is normally known for deep correction with typically retracting a Fibonacci ratio of 61.8%. The above circle region between 50% to 78.6% (2,832 to 2,475) is the high probability region in which Primary wave 2 could end. So far, the lowest STI has hit for the past week is at most the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ratio only. Consider a typical pattern of zigzag ((a))-((b))-((c)) for Primary wave 2, afraid Intermediate wave ((a)) still yet to reach.
Above is a rough estimation of a typical zigzag Primary wave 2 looks like generated by the Correction Calculator. Assuming Intermediate wave ((a)) ends at the 38.2% Fibonacci level and a typical 61.8% Fibonacci for Intermediate wave ((b)), the list of possible Intermediate wave ((c)) ranging from 100% to 161.8% of Intermediate wave ((i)) all fall within the circle region above in the chart (between 2,832 to 2,475).
On the time duration perspective, Primary wave 1 took 105 weeks to complete. While Primary wave 2 should not be as long as Primary wave 1, 50% of the duration is 52.5 weeks (a year) and 25% is 26.25 weeks (6 months plus). Since March peak till now, it is only just 2 months into it, the fastest for Primary wave 2 to complete still have 4 more months to go.
Also note that, everything look like in place for this STI Positive wave count to be valid, the several doubts highlighted in red in the above chart are weighing down this scenario might not be the correct wave count. This wave count shall be totally rule out when STI fall below 2,208.42 due to rule violation.
STI Negative -- Green / STI Negative -- Orange
As mentioned in the past analysis, the 2 STI Negative scenarios are yet to be invalidated due to rule violation. This means, they are the silent killer now as majority of the people believe in the STI Positive scenario. However, from this installment of the analysis onward, the focus shall only be on STI Negative -- Green scenario. This not because STI Negative -- Orange scenario is invalidated but from time duration perspective, that wave count is very questionable.
The chart above has labelled the Cycle wave (B) in detail down to its Intermediate degree. For this scenario, STI Cycle wave (B) has completed at 3,456.09 in March 2022 and now in Cycle wave (C), the last leg of the SuperCycle correction which started in 2007. There are lot of ways (pattern or shape) Cycle wave (C) can play out so at this moment it is too early and immature to comment of where the Primary degree wave count could end.
In possible and most likely ending level of Cycle wave (C) is definitely below 2,208.42 and could end as low as STI 1,800 level. While in STI Positive scenario, the present correction could end fastest 6 months, for Cycle wave (C) it will be between 1 to 2 years.
Above is the updated SuperCycle wave count for all the STI scenarios.
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