Continued from STI Analysis -- the next peak and trough ? (108)
FTSE STI ended the week 23rd September 2022 at 3,227.10, pretty much remained unchanged from a month ago.
Magenta -- STI Positive
From first look, STI like already completed the Intermediate wave ((b)) and now in Intermediate wave ((c)) of Primary wave 2. However, this might not be the case as STI could still be in Intermediate wave ((b)). The reason for such a claim is in Intermediate wave ((a)), there was a clear 5-wave structure in the Minor degree but in Intermediate wave ((b)), a bare minimum should see a zigzag pattern in the Minor degree. Thus, present movement is a part of the Minor wave (b). Alternatively, Intermediate wave ((b)) could play out as a triangle pattern with five axis A-B-C-D-E, which clearly that has not been fully played out. Though STI still in Intermediate wave ((b)), there is nothing to cheer about as upside shall be limited and a big fall in Intermediate wave ((c)) shall follow next.
Green -- STI Negative / Orange -- STI Negative
For these "silent killer" STI negative scenarios, present movement is pretty much inline with the STI Positive scenario, still in the B wave and a bigger fall in the C wave shall follow next. The only different is the negative scenarios will have much more downside than the positive scenario once the B wave has completed. The exception is the Green -- STI Negative wave count, there shall be a B wave in the Cycle degree, something that could potential cause investors to be mistaken as worst is over after the next big drop.
Nothing much has changed in the overall wave count for STI looking at the SuperCycle, Cycle and Primary degree level. Just need that patience to wait for it to play out both the positive and negative scenarios.
As a general guidance, present crisis due to inflation and Central Bankers hiking interest rate to curb it, things would only call it an end when they have over tighten and resulting in a recession. This is what human psychology is about and especially true for those who are very data oriented and make decision solely relying on data.
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